[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 18N42W TO 7N50W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE BROAD
CYCLONIC TURNING WITH CONVECTION W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 46W-50W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS FROM 19N63W TO 8N67W MOVING
W NEAR 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS
INDICATE BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING WITH CONVECTION W OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN
65W-68W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 9N25W 12N46W 8N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION
...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 15W-18W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 24W-30W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 56W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF NEAR 30N89W
PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. FURTHER W...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND OVER MEXICO
S OF TAMPICO FROM 19N-22W BETWEEN 96W-99W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER TEXAS FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 94W-100W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER FLORIDA ALONG 81W PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER INLAND FLORIDA FROM
27N-31N BETWEEN 81W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER W TEXAS NEAR 32N103W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE SE OF THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER
INLAND TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO CENTERED OVER THE NE
GULF NEAR 29N89W. DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION OVER INLAND FLORIDA. EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT
W TO THE W GULF IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER
FLORIDA TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 15-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM
9N-12N BETWEEN 73W-76W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM HONDURAS TO PANAMA
FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 75W-87W...AND FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 83W-86W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N78W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO
MOVE TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. ANOTHER 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N43W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N60W 31N70W TO SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N79W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A
1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N38W. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SAHARAN AIR ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC E OF 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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