[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 16N40W TO 8N46W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE BROAD
CYCLONIC LOW/MID FLOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WELL W OF THE WAVE WITHIN
60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 15N44W TO 12N50W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS FROM 17N63W TO 10N65W MOVING
W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS WEAK BUT HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND THUS
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 61W-66W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N15W 7N30W 8N43W THEN RESUMES
NEAR 13N48W 10N55W 10N62W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 8N-11N E OF 17N TO JUST INLAND OVER GUINEA AFRICA. LARGE
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
11N20W TO 7N26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 35W-40W...FROM
2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 37W-41W...AND WITHIN 75 NM OF 7N
FROM 51W-59W INCLUDING A PORTION OF THE COAST OF GUYANA SOUTH
AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE N GULF NEAR 28N88W COVERING MOST OF THE
GULF MAINLY N OF 22N BETWEEN 85W-94W. THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC AND A SECOND INLAND OVER MEXICO...BOTH
CLIPPING THE FAR E AND W GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO FROM NEAR RIO BRAVO JUST OFFSHORE
NEAR TAMPICO TO OVER VERACRUZ GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60/90 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF MEXICO AND TEXAS FROM VERACRUZ TO JUST S OF
GALVESTON. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
WITH A 1022 MB HIGH INLAND OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD ELONGATED UPPER LOW COVERS THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN
CENTERED ALONG 17N75W TO 13N83W COVERING THE AREA W OF 72W TO
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS SAME AREA IS
UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MODERATELY DRY AIR THUS...ONLY
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DOT THE AREA S OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-84W WITH THE HIGHEST
CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS S OF 13N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND NICARAGUA
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE ITCZ THAT EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR
9N76W ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC COVERING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 72W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE W ATLC
EXTENDING ALONG 33N60W ALONG 31N67W THEN NW TO A WEAK 1018 MB
LOW NEAR WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE FRONT BETWEEN
59W-69W AND N OF 30N BETWEEN 76W-79W. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH
NEAR 30N42W ALONG 27N62W TO A 1020 MB HIGH NE OF THE N BAHAMA
ISLANDS NEAR 27N76W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
DRY SAHARAN AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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