[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 280003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 17N31W TO 12N37W TO 5N41W MOVING
W 10-15 KT. THERE IS A NORTHERN VORTICITY MAXIMUM NEAR THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS WITH SOME CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS NOTED ON
SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 38W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 19N55W TO 15N59W TO 10N61W MOVING
W 15-20 KT. MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY E OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 15N. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 56W-61W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 10N20W THEN RESUMES NEAR
15N33W 9N45W 10N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN
17W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN
28W-30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N
BETWEEN 50W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO TO INCLUDE THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE FROM 24N96W TO 16N93W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-30N BETWEEN 93W-97W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N86W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS HOWEVER ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 81W-82W
MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 33N100W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF
THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF. EXPECT
THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF IN 24
HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF TO ALSO DRIFT
W TO TEXAS AND MEXICO E OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH 30 KT
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM HONDURAS TO PANAMA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN
77W-87W...AND FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 83W-86W. MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR
18N87W. A LARGER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS S OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N77W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT CONTINUED
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO
EXPECT A TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS E OF FLORIDA NEAR 27N75W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS DRIFTING S OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG
32N60W 31N70W TO SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N38W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY SAHARAN AIR ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC E OF 55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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