[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ELONGATED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N27W 13N32W 6N34W MOVING W 5
TO 10 KT. WELL DEFINED LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW SURROUNDS
THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN BOTH SATELLITE DATA AND SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A SURGE IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
HOWEVER...THIS WAVE IS FOUND WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF SIGNIFICANT
SAHARAN AIR LAYER SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP CONVECTION FROM
DEVELOPING.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 180 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG
57W S OF 18N MOVING WEST 5 TO 10 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS ATTACHED
TO THE ITCZ WITH VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD OF A SURGE
IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT IS OVERHEAD THIS WAVE.
THEREFORE...ONLY SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE WAVE LINKED TO THE ITCZ.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN AFRICAN COAST OF THE
GAMBIA NEAR 13N16W...WESTWARD ALONG 14N20W 17N27W 8N35W 7N50W
10N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
190 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM 35W TO 60W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF GUINEA AND
GUINEA-BISSAU TO 200 NM OFFSHORE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF...FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 84W AND
91W...AND THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF...NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 81W AND
94W...ENHANCED BY BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND A MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N88W. STRONGER CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...SOUTH OF 21N EAST OF
94W...AND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST TO 80 NM
OFFSHORE...PRODUCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 92W SOUTH OF 22N.
THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST WITH CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS
EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE NW GULF GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS TO
30 NM OFFSHORE. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE MORE CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN TEXAS LINGERS OVER THIS REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FAR SW
CARIBBEAN...WEST OF 74W SOUTH OF 12N...DUE TO THE PACIFIC ITCZ
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COUNTRIES OF COSTA RICA
AND PANAMA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE EASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA TO 100 NM
OFFSHORE...FROM MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS THAT MOVED OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN 24 HOURS AGO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ALONG
WITH SAHARAN DUST IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...PROVIDING
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC DUE TO
DRY SAHARAN AIR ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ANCHORED BY A
1020 MB HIGH CIRCULATING OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 27N74W AND A
BROAD 1025 MB HIGH WEST OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N31W PROVIDING FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE
THIS TREND FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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