[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0550 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W S OF 19N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. LOW TO
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW SURROUNDS THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN BOTH
SATELLITE DATA AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE WAVE ALSO
COINCIDES WITH A SURGE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE IS FOUND WITHIN
A BROAD AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SAHARAN AIR LAYER SUPPRESSING ANY
DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 19N MOVING WEST 5 TO 10 KT.
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD
OF A SURGE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. ALSO...THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH A REGION OF
VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT. THEREFORE...NO DEEP CONVECTION
ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN AFRICAN COAST OF THE
GAMBIA NEAR 13N16W...WESTWARD ALONG 12N20W 10N30W 8N40W 9N50W
8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
140 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF EAST OF 88W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA
STRAITS FROM BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY SPINNING NEAR 25N85W. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE EAST...CENTRAL...AND NORTHERN GULF
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO LINGER ALONG THE WESTERN
GULF COAST TO 60 NM OFFSHORE FROM MATAMOROS MEXICO SOUTH TO
VERACRUZ...ENHANCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED INLAND OVER
MEXICO. THE NE GULF NORTH OF 26N WEST OF 93W IS INFLUENCED BY
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING INLAND
OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA PRODUCING A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THIS
AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WEST OF 78W CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS AS INDICATED BY COMPUTER GENERATED 500
MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THIS REGION. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD OUT OF THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION LINGERING OVER THE
FAR SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE PACIFIC ITCZ EXTENDING ACROSS THE
LOWER REGIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ABUNDANT SAHARAN DUST AND DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT IS NOTED ELSEWHERE EAST OF 78W...PROVIDING FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF
78W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB
HIGH CIRCULATING OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 27N67W AND A BROAD
1028 MB HIGH NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N26W PROVIDING FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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