[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 252340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W TO THE SOUTH
OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS MIXED
WITH ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W TO THE SOUTH
OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N28W 13N40W
8N46W 7N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 14N17W 10N23W 7N32W...AND FROM 3N TO 10N
BETWEEN 45W AND 60W ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO/SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...
TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N95W.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO
THE WEST OF 92W. LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN
COASTAL MEXICO FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 96W AND 100W. A SURFACE
TROUGH PARALLELS THE MEXICO GULF COAST FROM 24N98W TO 21N98W TO
19N96W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N TO 22N
BETWEEN 96W AND 99W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS
COVER MEXICO BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST
OF 90W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N84W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 91W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 17N
TO THE WEST OF WINDWARD PASSAGE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST
OF JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE
SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 74W/75W. THE COMPARATIVELY COLDER
CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW HAVE
BEEN WARMING DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS...SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN THERE. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM
18N82W TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...AND THEN
IT HUGS THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO WESTERN
PANAMA. THE STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE IN THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA SIX HOURS AGO HAVE DISSIPATED...AND SOME OF
THE CLOUDS IN THAT AREA HAVE MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD...INCLUDING
COVERING THE SOUTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN
GUATEMALA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
A LINE ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST FROM SOUTHWESTERN
GUATEMALA...THROUGH EL SALVADOR...INTO SOUTHWESTERN NICARAGUA.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REST
OF THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 74W/75W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AND DISSIPATING...AND THEN RE-DEVELOPING
SOMEWHAT FROM BARBADOS TO DOMINICA BETWEEN 59W AND 62W. THE TAIL
END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 14N62W FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH A 32N31W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO A 27N39W CYCLONIC CENTER...19N48W 15N55W
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS NEAR 14N62W. AN UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N72W. THIS CENTER
IS CONNECTED TO THE 24N84W SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE 32N31W 14N62W TROUGH TO 70W.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N33W TO 27N44W...TO 27N56W TO
A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N69W TO THE EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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