[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST ALONG 21W S OF 19N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM DAKAR SENEGAL
INDICATE THE WAVE PASSING AROUND 25/0000 UTC. LOW/MID-LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN BOTH SATELLITE
DATA AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A
MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 41W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE ALSO IS AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO
DEEP CONVECTION ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 74W S OF 20N
MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR IS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE COVERS
THE WRN CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE WAVE. HOWEVER...THIS IS MOST
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WRN CUBA THAT
ABSORBED MOST OF THE WAVE ENERGY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 9N27W 11N36W 8N50W 7N61W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 27N-30N.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 57W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANTS OF BONNIE CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND OVER SE
LOUISIANA. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN
MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ALSO REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING SE
TEXAS/SW LOUISIANA FROM 28N-20N BETWEEN 93W-95W. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE ERN MEXICO COAST W
OF 95W S OF 25N ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH HUGGING THE
COASTLINE. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS NEAR 30N97W. UPPER RIDING COVERS THE FAR NW GULF WITH A
SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SE GULF CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER WRN CUBA NEAR 22N83W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE
FAR SE GULF. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR
SW GULF ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AS WELL AS ACROSS THE ERN
GULF AS THE UPPER LOW OVER WRN CUBA MOVES WWD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE COVERS THE WRN CARIBBEAN AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER WRN CUBA NEAR 22N83W. THE UPPER LOW IS
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 17N82W TO 9N81W.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N-19N BETWEEN
78W-82W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO MOVING INTO THE ERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 86W-89W....AND JUST OFF THE COAST
OF COSTA RICA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 81W-84W. A TROPICAL WAVE
EXTENDS ALONG 74W. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAS BEEN ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR COVERS THE BASIN E OF THE WAVE MAINTAINING
STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT THE UPPER LOW AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO MOVE WNW TOWARDS THE S CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WRN CUBA IS SUPPORTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WRN BAHAMAS AND ACROSS
S FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS COVERED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA SUPPORTING
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 28N66W
MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS. FARTHER E...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATES CENTERED AROUND A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES ISLANDS
NEAR 41N25W. ALOFT...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG
45N43W 26N46W 14N54W SANDWICHED BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE W ATLC AND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE E
ATLC CENTERED OVER NW AFRICA NEAR 26N10W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

WALTON





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