[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251213
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 15N36W 11N36W 6N39W MOVING WEST
ABOUT 5 KT. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE
ALSO LIES AHEAD OF A SURGE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE IS FOUND
WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN AIR LAYER SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP
CONVECTION WITHIN THE WAVE AXIS AND SURROUNDINGS OF IT.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 70W S OF 20N
MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT SAHARAN DUST AND DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE SUPPRESSING IT
FROM PRODUCING ANY CONVECTION.

WIND PROFILE DATA FROM DAKAR SENEGAL CLEARLY INDICATES LOW TO
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION AROUND THE NORTHERN EXTENTION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY INLAND OVER WEST AFRICA. THIS WAVE WILL
BE EMERGING INTO THE ATLANTIC AREA OF DISCUSSION WITH CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN AFRICAN COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...WESTWARD ALONG 9N20W 5N30W 6N40W
6N50W 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 140 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 30W. SCATTERED
WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ WEST
OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF BONNIE IS NOW INLAND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF LOUISIANA. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...BANDS OF SCATTERED GUSTY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST N OF 28N BETWEEN 88W AND 93W. MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER THE SW GULF W OF 94W FROM 20N TO
25N...ENHANCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW CENTER
ANALYZED INLAND OVER MEXICO. THIS AREA HAS ALREADY RECEIVED
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS FROM THE
SAME SYSTEM. THE CONTINUATION OF RAINFALL ACROSS THESE AREAS
INCREASES THE THREAT OF FLOODING AND POTENTIAL MUDSLIDES IN
AREAS OF HIGH SATURATED TERRAIN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF INCLUDING THE FLORIDA
STRAITS E OF 84W FROM A VIGOROUS AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CUBA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MARINE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SHOW ESE WINDS 10 TO 20
KT. A VIGOROUS BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER CENTRAL CUBA
NEAR 22N81W...AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 80W ARE
INTERACTING TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W
OF 75W. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
FAIRLY QUICK INTO THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
WHILE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY LINGER OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH
CONVECTION S OF 17N W OF 77W THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. A TROPICAL
WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF
ABUNDANT SAHARAN DUST AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT SUPPRESSING THIS
WAVE FROM PRODUCING ANY CONVECTION AND PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 75W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC...WEST OF THE BAHAMAS...SOUTH OF 26N
WEST OF 76W...ENHANCED BY A VIGOROUS BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW
SPINNING OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N81W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NW INTO THE FAR
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1022
MB HIGH CIRCULATING OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 27N65W AND A
BROAD 1031 MB HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES NEAR 42N24W PROVIDING
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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