[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0550 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 15N36W 11N36W 6N39W MOVING WEST
ABOUT 5 KT. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS IN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
WAVE. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD OF A SURGE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE
IS FOUND WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN AIR LAYER SUPPRESSING
ANY DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE WAVE AXIS AND SURROUNDINGS OF IT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 70W S OF
20N MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT SAHARAN DUST AND
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE SUPPRESSING
IT FROM PRODUCING ANY CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN AFRICAN COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...WESTWARD ALONG 9N20W 5N30W 6N40W
6N50W 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 140 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 30W. SCATTERED
WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ WEST
OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF BONNIE IS NOW INLAND OVER
LOUISIANA NEAR THE COASTAL CITY OF BOOTHVILLE. ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND OVER
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...BANDS OF SCATTERED GUSTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST N OF
27N BETWEEN 87W AND 92W. MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER THE SW GULF W OF 94W FROM 20N TO
25N...ENHANCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED INLAND OVER MEXICO.
WELL DEFINED SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH AXIS IS
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
ARE BEGINNING TO ENTER THE FAR EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS E OF 83W FROM A STRONG BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CUBA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STRONG BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CUBA
NEAR 22N80W...AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 80W ARE
INTERACTING TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W
OF 77W. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
FAIRLY QUICK INTO THE EASTERN GULF...WHILE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
MAY LINGER OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION S OF 17N W OF
77W THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF ABUNDANT SAHARAN DUST AND
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT SUPPRESSING THIS WAVE FROM PRODUCING ANY
CONVECTION AND PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 77W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 26N WEST OF 75W...ENHANCED BY A STRONG BROAD
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NW INTO THE FAR
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1024
MB HIGH CIRCULATING OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 27N65W AND A
BROAD 1031 MB HIGH NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 41N26W PROVIDING
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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