[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250014 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010

CORRECTION FOR THE DATE/TIME AND THE DISTANCES OF
THE REMNANT LOW OF BONNIE TO THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE HAS DEGENERATED INTO A DISORGANIZED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT LOW OF BONNIE AT
25/0000 UTC IS NEAR 28.6N 88.3W...OR ABOUT 56 NM/65 MILES/105 KM
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE
REMNANT LOW OF BONNIE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 12 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE
REMNANT LOW OF BONNIE SHOWS UP WELL ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WERE COVERING THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AT 24/1615 UTC HAVE WARMED
WITH TIME...AND WHATEVER REMAINS OF THAT CLOUDINESS/PRECIPITATION
HAS MOVED NORTHWESTWARD TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST/IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM 26N TO
30N. A SEPARATE AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS IS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS
OF 29N88W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS TO THE NORTH
OF 26N BETWEEN 89W AND THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER IS MOVING
NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS NEAR 30N96W.
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N32W TO 12N37W
TO 8N39W...MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KT. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 20N63W...ACROSS
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...TO 16N66W AND 11N67W...MOVING WESTWARD
20 TO 25 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 71W...AND
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 19N70W IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO THE NORTHERN SHORES
OF PUERTO RICO BETWEEN CENTRAL PUERTO RICO AND THE EASTERN TIP
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE GUINEA/SIERRA LEONE BORDER NEAR 10N ALONG 12W...
TO 9N20W 9N34W 8N50W...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N62W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
30W...TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 39W AND 54W...AND FROM 9N TO
10N BETWEEN 59W AND 60W...AND IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA FROM
9N TO 11N BETWEEN 62W AND 63W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF BONNIE DOMINATES MOST OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN IN THE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
IS TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 89W AND THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA
BORDER IS MOVING NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS NEAR
30N96W. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT
OR SUNDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 23 TO
THE WEST OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA
TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW ALSO IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TO THE SOUTH OF 27N
BETWEEN 70W AND 84W. CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
FROM 15N TO CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER
CUBA FROM EAST TO WEST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 60W...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N77W.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 22N77W CENTER TO 15N80W. UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TO THE SOUTH OF
27N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W. CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 16N TO CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER CUBA FROM EAST TO WEST..AND FROM 17N TO 18N
BETWEEN 81W AND 83W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N73W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...CROSSING EASTERN CUBA TO 19N77W. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN
79W AND 81W...TO THE SOUTH OF THE BASE OF THE 22N77W 15N80W
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
A LINE FROM EASTERN HONDURAS TO SOUTH CENTRAL NICARAGUA. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM SOUTHWESTERN HONDURAS...
ACROSS EL SALVADOR...INTO SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA AND EVENTUALLY
MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 92W AND 94W. ALL THIS
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 24N67W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO
THE EAST OF 65W...POSSIBLY CONNECTED TO THE 24N67W-PUERTO RICO
TROUGH. THESE TROUGHS/AREAS OF CYCLONIC FLOW ARE TO THE EAST
AND/OR SLIGHTLY ON TOP OF THE 20N63W 11N67W TROPICAL WAVE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N29W TO 27N39W TO 19N48W
TO 12N56W. THIS TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND 60W AND NORTHWARD BEYOND 30N. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 33N47W 28N50W WITH NO NEARBY DISCERNIBLE
PRECIPITATION. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N32W TO 29N40W
TO 28N45W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 56W AND 80W...AROUND A 1025 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N67W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT






This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net