[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241146
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ON JUL 24 0900 UTC IS NEAR 27.6N
85.1W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OR ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MOVING WNW NEAR 26 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1013 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30
KT. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A SMALL REGION OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WITH DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM
28N-30N BETWEEN 86W-88W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 18N30W 6N36W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD OF A
SURGE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. A BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS HOWEVER
SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 60W/61W S OF 21N
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE WWD
ALONGSIDE A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS ALSO SHOW WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WAVE AXIS. A SURGE OF DRY SAHARAN AIR EXTENDS N OF 12N E
OF 60W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 13N33W 8N45W 13N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM
7N-11N BETWEEN 14W-25W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 38W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. SEE
ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N94W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF
THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN
95W-99W. EXPECT... BONNIE TO BE ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
RESULTING IN 5-15 KT WINDS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER E CUBA
FROM 22N75W TO 18N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE
VICINITY OF JAMAICA AND E CUBA FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 73W-78W.
FURTHER S...A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER INLAND N COLOMBIA
NEAR 8N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM 5N-9N
BETWEEN 70W-77W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 22N73W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S
OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION S OF E CUBA. EXPECT...
THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.
ALSO EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO MOVE W
TO THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N53W MOVING W.
ANOTHER 1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE AZORES NEAR 39N25W. A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THIS CENTER TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
HIGH TO 30N75W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF HISPANIOLA 22N73W. AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N52W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 25N35W. EXPECT...SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA...TO INCLUDE
THE BAHAMAS...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA/WALLACE






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