[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240531
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE ON JUL 24 0300 UTC IS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OFF FORT MYERS FLORIDA NEAR 26.4N 83.4W
MOVING WNW NEAR 16 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1010 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A SMALL REGION OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WITH DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR ON BOTH EAST AND WEST SIDES OF
THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOW ONLY WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF 27N84.5W. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 19N30W 13N32W 9N35W MOVING W AT 5-
10 KT. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD
OF A SURGE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. A BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS HOWEVER
SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 59W S OF
20N MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE WWD
ALONGSIDE A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS ALSO SHOW WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WAVE AXIS. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER EXTENDS N OF 12N E OF 59W
TO THE COAST OF AFRICA SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 15N30W 9N45W 13N60W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 15W-25W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 38W-44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 44W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO. SEE
ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N93W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF
THE CENTER IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN
92W-97W...AND FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 97W-100W. EXPECT... BONNIE TO
APPROACH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
RESULTING IN 5-15 KT WINDS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER HONDURAS FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 85W-88W. FURTHER
S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 73W-76W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 22N72W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF HISPANIOLA
FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 69W-73W...AND N OF JAMAICA FROM 18N-20N
BETWEEN 76W-79W. EXPECT...THE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TO MOVE W TO THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE AZORES NEAR 39N25W. A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE CENTER TO THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 28N50W
30N75W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF
HISPANIOLA 22N72W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N52W.
ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
25N35W. EXPECT...SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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