[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE MADE LANDFALL IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FLORIDA
NEAR CUTLER BAY AROUND 1500 UTC. AS OF 1800 UTC...BONNIE IS
CENTERED NEAR 25.8N 81.1W MOVING WNW NEAR 16 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED AS IT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. NUMEROUS
MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN
80W-84W AFFECTING MUCH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF SW
FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO E
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 78W-80W. SEE
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TILTED TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 17N30W 12N32W 6N37W MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS IN THIS TILTED MANNER. THE WAVE ALSO
LIES AHEAD OF A SURGE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS ALSO
ENCOMPASSING THE WAVE SUPPRESSING MUCH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 54W/55W S
OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE WWD
ALONGSIDE A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS ALSO SHOW BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NEAR THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 50W-54W...AND FROM 5N-9N
BETWEEN 55W-60W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 13N29W 7N45W 9N64W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 15W-19W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 41W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ARE
BEGINNING TO ENTER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. THE CENTER OF
BONNIE IS CURRENTLY INLAND OVER THE S FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
SHOULD ENTER THE ERN GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. AS OF 1500 UTC...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE NE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE ALONG 31N85W TO 28N86W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 28N-29N.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE SWRN GULF SW
OF A LINE FROM 28N97W NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 20N90W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS MOVED INLAND OVER COASTAL MEXICO NEAR
21N98W. THE AREA IS ALSO UNDER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N89W AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA UP CENTRAL
MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ALSO NE OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE W ATLC AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DRY AIR IS BEING WRAPPED
AROUND THE UPPER LOW KEEPING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
INTO THE ERN GULF WATERS AS TROPICAL STORM BONNIE MOVES WNW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W
ATLC ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ISLAND
OVER NRN CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 13N-19N W OF 86W. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS N PUERTO RICO NEAR 23N67W PROVIDING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE
ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF
15N BETWEEN 64W-75W IMPACTING PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA. THESE LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS
OF RAINFALL FROM WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM BONNIE. THE
CONTINUATION OF RAINFALL ACROSS THESE AREAS INCREASES THE THREAT
OF FLOODING AND POTENTIAL MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO FORMED OVER ERN CUBA
FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 75W-78W. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NE AND N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES SW TOWARDS THE SE BAHAMAS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE IS NOW INLAND OVER THE S FLORIDA
PENINSULA. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NW BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA W OF 78W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE
FOR MORE DETAILS. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE W ATLC KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR 23N67W IS ENHANCING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA S OF 22N
BETWEEN 65W-70W. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR
41N23W PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. ALOFT...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 28N53W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW NEAR 35N39W. A SECOND ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS
MUCH OF THE ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM NEAR 36N16W TO 17N44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net