[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE IS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 79.8W AS OF JUL 23
AT 1200 UTC. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF MIAMI
FLORIDA OR ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF MARATHON FLORIDA. THIS
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 KT.THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN
A REGION OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N88W. THIS UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THIS SYSTEM. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTH BAHAMAS FROM
24N-26N BETWEEN 78W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FURTHER E FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 75W-78W. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 16N29W TO 6N34W MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT. INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS INDICATE WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A SURGE IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS
WAVE IS ALSO SURROUNDED BY A BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN AIR LAYER
SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALSO SHOW BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. A THICK AREA OF SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS
E OF 51W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE
ITCZ.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 16N30W 7N37W 10N51W 8N55W
10N64W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST
OF W AFRICA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 13W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 34W-37W...AND FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 49W-59W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-8N BETWEEN 38W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1008 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO AT 21N98W
MOVING W TOWARDS THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST FROM 20N-26N
BETWEEN 97W-100W... AND FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 94W-97W. FURTHER
E...A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER ALABAMA NEAR 33N87W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N88W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 90W-92W. EXPECT BONNIE TO
APPROACH S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITHIN A FEW HOURS
WITH WINDS AND CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
RESULTING IN 5-15 KT WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 85W-90W.
FURTHER E...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF E CUBA FROM
18N-20N BETWEEN 74W-77W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 69W-73W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF
80W. EXPECT...THE CONVECTION OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO MOVE W
TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE IS THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING HEAVY CONVECTION OVER
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE AZORES NEAR 38N26W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 23N67W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF PUERTO
RICO FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 63W-69W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N60W. EXPECT CONTINUED
CONVECTION N OF PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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