[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221150 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

CORRECTED FOR SPECIAL FEATURES

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG 24N72W 18N75W. SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR IS OVER THE TROUGH DISPLACING CONVECTION TO MOSTLY NE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN
71W-74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-21N
BETWEEN 69W-76W. THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD OVER THE
BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10-12
KT.

AT 0900 UTC...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 21N95W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N94W TO THE
LOW CENTER TO S MEXICO AT 17N94W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 93W-98W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER N FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN
93W-97W. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10-12 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW BEFORE IT
REACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED ON THE ITCZ ALONG 27W
S OF 14N MOVING W AT 15 KT. DISTINCT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 27W-32W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 17N45W TO 3N39W MOVING
W 15-20 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER N FROM 26N47W TO 18N45W.
A NARROW NORTH TO SOUTH AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS PRESENT
ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-2N BETWEEN 36W-40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF BOTH FEATURES.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS ALONG 81W MOVING W NEAR AT 15 KT. A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S
OF PANAMA FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 78W-80W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 11N27W 8N35W 9N42W 7N50W
10N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN
32W-36W...AND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 47W-49W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 55W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LOW AND TROUGH ARE OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURE SECTION. 20 KT E SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...WHILE 15-20 KT SE SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF N OF 25N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 27N9100W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF LOW ENHANCING CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH...AND A TROPICAL WAVE...ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN.
SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION ...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER GUATEMALA FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN
88W-92W. FURTHER E...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF HAITI
FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 73W-75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 15N-19N
BETWEEN 68W-71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 61W-66W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...EASTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...THE TROPICAL
WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH AREAS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 70W-74W DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO N OF PUERTO RICO
FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 65W-70W. A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 34N40W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF
THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE S BAHAMA SURFACE
TROUGH. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
19N57W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION N OF PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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