[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 220549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG 24N71W 18N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 21N-24N
BETWEEN 67W-74W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 67W-75W. DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV
JET INDICATE THAT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD BECOME MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR TWO. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE
BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
21N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N93W TO THE LOW CENTER
TO S MEXICO AT 18N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 93W-95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO FROM 16N-19N
BETWEEN92W-97W. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW BEFORE IT
REACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED ON THE ITCZ ALONG 26W
S OF 14N MOVING W AT 15 KT. DISTINCT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-12N
BETWEEN 27W-32W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 17N40W TO
3N36W MOVING W 15-20 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEPICTS A
NORTHERN SURGE OF LOW CLOUDS...THAT YESTERDAY WAS PART OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE...IS FURTHER N FROM 28N47W TO 19N43W. A NARROW
NORTH TO SOUTH AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS PRESENT ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
OF BOTH FEATURES.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA ALONG
79W MOVING W NEAR AT 15 KT. A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN
71W-76W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 8N30W 7N40W 7N50W 10N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 52W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW AND TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURE SECTION. 20 KT E SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. 10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF
25N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER S TEXAS NEAR 27N99W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
SW GULF LOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH AND A TROPICAL WAVE ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SEE
ABOVE. IN ADDITION ...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 85W-88W.
FURTHER E...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD
ISLANDS FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 60W-67W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AREAS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 67W-74W DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH.
A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N38W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR
27N77W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION OVER THE S BAHAMA SURFACE TROUGH. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N57W. EXPECT CONTINUED
CONVECTION N OF PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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