[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 210547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 23N65W TO 16N67W. STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
TROUGH AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 60W-68W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 25N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLEAR LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT
THE WAVE AXIS WITH AN INVERTED-V STRUCTURE. A SURGE OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 33W-43W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA ALONG 75W/76W S OF 21N
MOVING  W NEAR 15 KT. A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS PRESENT
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HAITI FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN
72W-75W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ALONG 90W S OF 26N TO NORTHERN GUATEMALA MOVING W 10
KT. WAVE LIES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS
ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER S MEXICO. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 84W-94W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 9N20W 12N34W 8N45W
11N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N
BETWEEN 22W-28W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-6N BETWEEN 28W-33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-9N BETWEEN 40W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION HAS
ADVECTED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO MEXICO S OF TAMPICO DUE TO A
TROPICAL WAVE THAT REACHED THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. FURTHER
E...A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG 90W S OF 26N.
SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N95W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E
AND S OF THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT...MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROPICAL WAVES MOVE
W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. FURTHER E...AN
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE.
IN ADDITION ...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 82W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
18N63W. EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE SPECIAL
FEATURE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AREAS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM
20N-23N BETWEEN BETWEEN 63W-68W. A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N36W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 25N71W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N49W. EXPECT CONTINUED
CONVECTION N OF PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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