[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201050
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 20 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 71W...AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 26N68W MOVING SW. RECENT
UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...EASTERN
CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W S OF 22N MOVING W 20 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE
WAVE AXIS CONFIRMED BY EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA AS WELL AS
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO
PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN
34W-38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 71W S OF 21N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM
17N-19N BETWEEN 70W-71W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER PUERTO RICO
FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 65W-68W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN ALONG 85W S OF 24N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. WAVE LIES
EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT IS
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS
AROUND THE WAVE AXIS AS INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 81W-83W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO
NICARAGUA FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 80W-86W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH
MEXICO ALONG 93W S OF 26N MOVING W NEAR NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE
LIES AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE
GULF AS EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS ALSO SPINNING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR
24N92W PROVIDING AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER S
MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN
90W-96W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 15N32W 8N37W 9N50W
10N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...A LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 10W-19W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 51W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH
MEXICO. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE SE GULF. SEE
ABOVE. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF W FLORIDA FROM 27N-28N BETWEEN 84W-86W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS ...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 24N92W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E AND S OF THIS
CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT...MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROPICAL WAVES MOVE W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. SEE ABOVE. IN ADDITION
...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 59W-62W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 19N59W. EXPECT...THE
TROPICAL WAVES TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
AREAS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION. ALSO SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE
SECTION ABOVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-18N
BETWEEN BETWEEN 55W-59W. A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N57W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. ANOTHER 1027 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N31W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
BESIDES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF HISPANIOLA ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N42W. EXPECT CONTINUED
CONVECTION N OF PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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