[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191728
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING PAST THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 20N24W
TO 8N26W MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLEAR
LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS CONFIRMED BY
SCATTEROMETER DATA AS WELL AS SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A SURGE
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 28W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 65W/66W S OF 21N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NEAR THE NRN
PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WAVE LIES UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 26N67W AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N57W. THIS
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS ENHANCING A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR
THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
14N-21N BETWEEN 55W-60W...AND FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 60W-71W
IMPACTING THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BRING
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
24N79W TO 12N82W MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. WAVE LIES EMBEDDED WITHIN
A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS INDICATED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS
THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 79W-84W...FROM 13N-20N
BETWEEN 75W-80W...AND FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 78W-84W AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 26N87W TO 13N90W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE LIES
AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE ERN
GULF AND FAR W CARIBBEAN EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING N OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 23N90W WHICH IS PROVIDING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN
86W-88W...AND FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 84W-89W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N12W 10N21W 6N33W 9N45W 8N62W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN
51W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS THE MAIN
FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN ENHANCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
24N-28N BETWEEN 84W-89W. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. AS OF 1500 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN THE SW
GULF ALONG 24N92W TO 19N93W SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ALONG THE NW
GULF COAST N OF 29N BETWEEN 92W-96W AFFECTING COASTAL SW
LOUISIANA AND ERN TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PARALLELS THE COASTLINE.
ELSEWHERE ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 23N90W ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL
WAVE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE WRN GULF CENTERED OVER
ARIZONA. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WWD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES. SEE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF DRY AIR OVER THE S CENTRAL AND SE
CARIBBEAN WHICH IS KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THESE AREAS.
ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE WRN CARIBBEAN CENTERED N
OF CENTRAL CUBA. ELY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NE/N CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN AS
THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVE WWD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF CENTRAL CUBA FROM 23N-25N
BETWEEN 78W-81W ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WRN
CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE MONA
PASSAGE NEAR 26N67W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED E OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N57W ARE ENHANCING A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 55W-60W...AND FROM
17N-23N BETWEEN 60W-71W AFFECTING THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...AND
APPROACHING TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE SE BAHAMAS. THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1025 MB
AND A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 32N56W AND 37N23W RESPECTIVELY.
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N43W WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING COVERING THE ENTIRE E ATLC CENTERED OVER NW AFRICA
NEAR 25N15W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

WALTON





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