[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
ALSO PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 24W-27W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W/65W S OF 21N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE WAVE
AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ALSO ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE AS SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 61W-67W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 80W/81W S OF
23N MOVING W 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF JAMAICA FROM
14N-17N BETWEEN 75W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 81W-84W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA
ALONG 88W/89W S OF 25N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE LIES
EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD CYCLONIC ROTATION
IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 15N22W 8N30W 9N50W
11N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N
BETWEEN 27W-32W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N
BETWEEN 32W-40W...AND FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 44W-48W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 50W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER MEXICO ALONG 98W S OF TAMPICO
MOVING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE ABOVE. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG 81W S OF 28N MOVING W. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S FLORIDA AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. 20 KT SURFACE WINDS ALSO PERSIST OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N87W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS CENTER IS PRODUCING ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN
82W-87W. EXPECT...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE AND
CENTRAL GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
DRIFTS W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. SEE
ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
E CUBA NEAR 20N76W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR
24N68W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO.
EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVES TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS. A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N55W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.
ANOTHER 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 38N23W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF PUERTO RICO IS ALSO
ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS S OF 24N BETWEEN
60W-70W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION N OF PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net