[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW-MID
LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO
PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN
22W-24W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 62W/63W S OF 20N
MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE WAVE
AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ALSO ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE AS SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 60W-70W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W/79W S OF
21N MOVING W 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF JAMAICA
FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 73W-80W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM WESTERN CUBA TO
CENTRAL HONDURAS ALONG 85W MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE LIES
EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD CYCLONIC ROTATION
IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA FROM
13N-16N BETWEEN 84W-87W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 11N20W 5N30W 7N50W 13N63W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 7N-8N BETWEEN 12W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 25W-29W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS N OF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN
48W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE W GULF ALONG 96W/97W S OF
23N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER E OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 90W-94W. 20 KT SURFACE WINDS
PERSIST OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 83W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N87W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS CENTER IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF W
FLORIDA FROM 26N-27N BETWEEN 82W-85W. EXPECT...MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. SEE ABOVE. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E CUBA NEAR
20N76W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 24N68W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. EXPECT...THE
TROPICAL WAVES TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
PRECIPITATION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 28N78W TO 24N79W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.
A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N50W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. ANOTHER 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 37N23W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
N OF PUERTO RICO IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS S OF 24N BETWEEN 60W-70W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION N
OF PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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