[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171722
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 49W S OF 19N MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE
WAVE IS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED WITH CYCLONIC TURNING COVERING A
BROAD AREA OF ABOUT FIVE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.
THE WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ON THE W SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
15N-17N BETWEEN 52W-55W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
ALONG 64W S OF 17N MOVING W AT 20 KT. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT
BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW N OF PUERTO RICO AND A RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE
AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM
13N-18N BETWEEN 62W-69W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF E CUBA ALONG 75W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE W OF THE
WAVE AXIS TO INCLUDE JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 15N-21N
BETWEEN 75W-82W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 10N15W 7N30W 12N50W 10N55W 12N64W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 15W-20W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 20W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N98W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE W GULF ALONG 94W S OF 27N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W GULF FROM
18N-30N BETWEEN 88W-96W. FURTHER E...20-25 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE
NOTED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 83W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S FLORIDA NEAR
26N81W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NW OF THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING
THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF. EXPECT...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE W
TO S TEXAS AND MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DRIFT W OVER THE E
GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LARGE PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM E HONDURAS TO W PANAMA ALONG 83W. A 1010 MB LOW
IS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 13N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 81W-85W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES
ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 25N65W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTION
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT... THE SURFACE TROUGHS AND THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF HISPANIOLA FROM 23N68W TO 20N70W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN
62W-68W. A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
32N62W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. ANOTHER 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC NEAR 41N17W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW N OF PUERTO RICO IS ALSO ENHANCING THE CONVECTION N OF
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION N OF PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA...AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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