[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2350 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W FROM 7N TO 19N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC TURNING ABOUT THE
WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF ELEVATED VALUES
IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SAHARAN AIR LAYER IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE IS SUPPRESSING
DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING...LEAVING ONLY SCATTERED WEAK TO
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N TO
13N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 60W FROM
8N TO 16N MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED IN
THE ITCZ AND IN A REGION OF ELEVATED VALUES IN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LOW-AMPLITUDE
CYCLONIC FLOW IS ALSO ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 71W S OF 17N
MOVING W AT ABOUT 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF
ELEVATED VALUES IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
AND STRONG CONVECTION IS NE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N TO 20N
BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 13N BETWEEN 66W AND 75W...INCLUDING
INLAND PORTIONS OF WESTERN VENEZUELA AND EASTERN COLOMBIA.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN AFRICAN COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W WESTWARD ALONG 7N20W 10N30W 11N40W
10N50W 12N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 10W AND 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM
N TO S ALONG 91W...FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 28N91W TO THE
WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N91W...DIVIDING THE GULF IN
HALF. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE GULF E
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. FURTHERMORE...A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N82W MOVING WEST INTO
THE EASTERN GULF WATERS FURTHER ENHANCING THE CONVECTION IN THIS
REGION. A DRYER AIRMASS IS NOTED WEST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION AND LEADING TO ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF. EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF...AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVE WESTWARD. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WILL REMAIN UNDER MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO DRYER AIR ALOFT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 83W FROM 10N TO
19N. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ENTERS THE NE CARIBBEAN ALONG 18N65W 17N66W. A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 71W S OF 17N. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
ALL THESE FEATURES ARE EMBEDDED IN CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY...PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN.
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN WILL CONTINUE THIS PATTERN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE SE COAST OF
FLORIDA AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS S OF 27N W OF 76W...NEAR THE BASE
OF A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN CONUS
AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 27N82W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO FROM 21N61W TO
17N66W. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 61W AND 67W. AN AREA OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS SURFACE TROUGH EVIDENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A
SERIES OF 1024...1025...AND 1026 MB HIGHS N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACCOMPANIED BY DUST COVERS MUCH OF
THE TROPICAL ATLC SUPPRESSING CONVECTION IN THIS REGION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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