[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161720
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W S OF 19N MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF ELEVATED VALUES IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED NEAR THE ITCZ AT 12N AS WELL AS
FURTHER N AT 16N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 15N MOVING W
AT 15 KT. A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN DUST ENCOMPASSES THIS
SYSTEM LIMITING CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE
NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 68W S OF 16N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION INLAND OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 66W-71W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 8N20W 10N30 12N41W 10N50W
12N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN
13W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
25W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS NEAR 30N96W PRODUCING
FAIR WEATHER AND 5 KT WINDS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG 90W S OF
29N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM
24N/29N BETWEEN 86W-93W. 20-25 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED ALONG
THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 25N. SIMILAR WINDS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA E OF 83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N79W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE W OF THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION OVER
FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. EXPECT...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE W TO THE W GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH. ALSO EXPECT
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE NW OVER S FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM E HONDURAS TO W
PANAMA ALONG 83W. A 1011 MB LOW IS FORMING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS
NEAR 11N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 81W-85W. A 1011 MB LOW IS ALSO NOTED OVER N
COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 72W-78W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
OVER THE EAST CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO N
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 21N60W TO 16N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 20N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
23N63W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 65W-71W. EXPECT... THE SURFACE
TROUGHS AND THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH PRECIPITATION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THREE SURFACE HIGHS ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC AT 32N60W...32N42W...
AND 36N28W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS N OF THE
TROPICS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IS ALSO PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 78W-80W. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS FURTHER MORE
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N-22N BETWEEN
58W-61W. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CLEAR OUT OF THE BAHAMAS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION N OF PUERTO RICO
AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MRF/NAR







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