[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE
WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN
33W-37W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.  THE
WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LOW-AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW IS
ALSO ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A
LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST ENCOMPASSES THE WAVE AXIS
RESTRICTING CONVECTION TO THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 44W-49W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE FOLLOWS A SLIGHT MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 60W-68W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 7N16W 11N25W 12N32W 10N37W
13N45W 10N53W 11N63W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 16W-19W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FURTHER S FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 17W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N91W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. LIGHT
10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
ALONG 85W S OF 27N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS SIMILAR PRECIPITATION OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND
FLORIDA MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N85W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E
OF THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION OVER FLORIDA AND
THE SE GULF. EXPECT...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE W TO
THE CENTRAL GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AT 22N85W TO
N OF HONDURAS AT 17N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. FURTHER S...THE ITCZ TRAVERSES PANAMA WHERE
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
5N-12N BETWEEN 75W-85W. FURTHER E...A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS N OF CUBA NEAR 24N77W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF
THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S
OF E CUBA AND HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 68W-80W. EXPECT...
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE BAHAMAS W OF
72W. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N61W PRODUCING
FAIR WEATHER. ANOTHER 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 37N35W. A SMALL SURFACE TROUGH IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ALONG 21N54W 17N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
17N-20N BETWEEN 56W-60W MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS N OF CUBA NEAR 24N77W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N52W. A THIRD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 20N33W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 17N20W. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TROPICS S OF 22N OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA







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