[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151109
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N30W TO 6N31W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOW WELL-DEFINED
CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD OF A
MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 30W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THE WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LOW-AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW
IS ALSO ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS.
A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST ENCOMPASSES THE WAVE
AXIS RESTRICTING CONVECTION TO THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 41W-44W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE
FOLLOWS A SLIGHT MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 63W-67W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 9N30W 9N43W 7N50W 10N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-14N
BETWEEN 13W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N
BETWEEN 49W-52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 51W-62W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO W OF 85W AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SRN PLAINS MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN.
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN PROGRESSING WWD FROM
THE ATLC IS NOW ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
MOISTURE ALONG WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING W OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO WRN CUBA ALONG 29N84W TO
21N84W ARE ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ERN GULF S OF 30N E OF 86W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO ACROSS THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N W OF 94W AROUND A
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC AND UP
CENTRAL MEXICO. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN GULF AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE WWD. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WILL
REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ACROSS WRN
CUBA IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 82W-85W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE SE BAHAMAS WITH AXIS EXTENDING TO THE
SSW SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-18N
BETWEEN 67W-80W...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF ERN
CUBA.  THE COMBINATION OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR AN EXTENSION
OF THE E PACIFIC ITCZ ACROSS COSTA RICA TO THE COLOMBIAN COAST
IS ENHANCING NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION S OF 12N BETWEEN
71W-86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE E CARIBBEAN
FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 63W-67W DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 64W.
ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS TO EITHER SIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE
BAHAMAS...EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE ERN CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 64W PROGRESSES
WWD...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES NW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA
N OF 29N BETWEEN 76W-79W NEAR THE BASE OF A SHORTWAVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD. SIMILAR ACTIVITY
IS ALSO N OF ERN CUBA FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 73W-76W NEAR AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS E OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 21N55W TO 15N58W SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-20N BETWEEN 54W-58W. AN AREA OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE SURFACE TROUGH EVIDENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATES THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF 1026 AND 1027 MB
HIGHS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER
ACCOMPANIED BY DUST COVERS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC KEEPING
CONDITIONS FAIR. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR 31N51W WITH
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TO NEAR 21N57W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE
TROUGH E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS TO THE S
OF 20N CENTERED NEAR 14N61 W WITH AXIS EXTENDING TO THE NE
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON






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