[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141718
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WAVE AXIS. A SURGE OF MOISTURE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS IS ALSO
PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 20W-28W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
THE WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ALSO
ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A LARGE
AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST ENCOMPASSES THE WAVE AXIS
RESTRICTING CONVECTION TO NEAR THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 40W-48W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE FOLLOWS A SLIGHT MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...WAVE IS SUPPRESSED
DUE TO A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND DUST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC
KEEPING CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 52W-60W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS NOW MOVED OVER THE FAR SW
GULF...MEXICO...AND THE E PACIFIC. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER MEXICO FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 97W-100W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 15N20W 7N30W 10N41W 8N50W
10N61W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W
AFRICA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 7W-10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N85W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. LIGHT 5 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE
NOTED OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. 10-15 KT SE-S WINDS ARE OVER THE
W GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER S FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...AND W CUBA ALONG 26N80W 21N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE NE
GULF NEAR 29N88W. FURTHER S...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N94W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W
OF THIS CENTER IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER INLAND MEXICO FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 97W-100W. EXPECT...THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER S FLORIDA TO MOVE W TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SIMILAR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO DUE
TO THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
9N-11N BETWEEN 77W-84W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 67W-72W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN E OF 78W...ESPECIALLY OVER JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA...
MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 23N73W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
S OF THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT...CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE N BAHAMAS
W OF 76W. A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N58W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. ANOTHER 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 40N42W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 23N73W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N51W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N30W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ATLANTIC N
OF 17N E OF 63W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS W OF 63W TO
BEYOND FLORIDA. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE N FLORIDA COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net