[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141109
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WAVE AXIS. A SURGE OF MOISTURE NEAR THE WAVE AXIS IS ALSO
PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
8N-14N BETWEEN 19W-26W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
THE WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ALSO
ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A LARGE
AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST ENCOMPASSES THE WAVE AXIS
RESTRICTING CONVECTION TO NEAR THE ITCZ. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-9N
BETWEEN 40W-43W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N56W TO 1N58W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE FOLLOWS A SLIGHT MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...WAVE IS SUPPRESSED
DUE TO A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND DUST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC
KEEPING CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS S OF
7N ACROSS NE S AMERICA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS NOW MOVED OVER THE FAR SW
GULF AND THE E PACIFIC WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE AXIS LYING IN
THE E PACIFIC. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-21N
BETWEEN 94W-98W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N17W 8N30W 8N40W 6N48W 7N58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
43W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED S OF
ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI NEAR 29N88W MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ACROSS CENTRAL
MEXICO DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 95W HAS FLARED UP NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM
16N-21N BETWEEN 94W-98W. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING DOMINATES THE
BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED W OF FLORIDA NEAR
27N87W. LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE
WITH STRONGER SLY WINDS REACHING UP TO 20 KT ALONG THE
MEXICO/TEXAS COASTLINE. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN THE SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ACROSS CUBA. AN
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND WILL
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE SE GULF. EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ALONG WITH DRY AIR AND MOSTLY
FAIR CONDITIONS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MAINLY ELY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE E PACIFIC
IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 79W-84W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS INFLUENCE
BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE ITCZ EXTENDING ACROSS PANAMA. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA ACROSS CUBA ALONG 26N81W
ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N BETWEEN
74W-82W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF HISPANIOLA IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 65W-71W
IMPACTING PUERTO RICO AND ERN HISPANIOLA. ELSEWHERE...A DRY
SAHARAN AIR LAYER AROUND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC IS KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR. A FEW STATIONS
CONTINUE TO REPORT THE PRESENCE OF DUST. OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS...EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL BE
ENTERING THE FAR ERN CARIBBEAN BRINGING MOISTURE AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THIS PORTION OF THE
BASIN. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO LIKELY ACROSS THE N CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF HISPANIOLA MOVES WWD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS
MUCH OF THE W ATLC. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO SPIN N OF HISPANIOLA GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM S OF 21N BETWEEN 65W-71W. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE WRN BAHAMAS
ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM S FLORIDA ACROSS CUBA. FARTHER E...RIDGING
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 40N43W. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACCOMPANIED BY DUST COVERS
MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR. ALOFT...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BETWEEN 38W-54W N OF 20N...WITH UPPER
RIDGING TO THE S OF 20N AND E OF 38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON






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