[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE HUGS THE AFRICAN COAST ALONG 17W S OF 22N MOVING W
15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS
FROM DAKAR SENEGAL WENT FROM NWLY TO ELY AROUND 33O UTC
INDICATING THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. A SURGE OF MOISTURE NEAR THE
WAVE AXIS IS ALSO PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-14N
BETWEEN 17W-22W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
THE WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ALSO
ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A LARGE
AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST ENCOMPASSES THE WAVE AXIS
RESTRICTING CONVECTION TO NEAR THE ITCZ. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-10N
BETWEEN 38W-43W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO S OF THE AXIS FROM
4S-3N BETWEEN 35W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
WAVE FOLLOWS A SLIGHT MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...WAVE IS SUPPRESSED
DUE TO A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND DUST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC
KEEPING CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 56W-59W OVER INLAND S
AMERICA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 93W S OF
20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS
NOW MOVED OVER THE FAR SW GULF AND THE E PACIFIC WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE AXIS LYING IN THE E PACIFIC. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS ACROSS SRN MEXICO S OF 19N BETWEEN 91W-102W. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN S OF 20N BETWEEN 93W-95W
IN THE SW GULF. SEE TWDEP FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS WAVE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N17W 11N27W 10N44W 8N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN
26W-30W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 45W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS LIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED S OF ALABAMA NEAR 29N86W
MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY OVER THE SW GULF HAS MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL
MEXICO DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 93W HAS FLARED UP NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS
SRN MEXICO WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR
SW GULF S OF 20N. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING DOMINATES THE BASIN
ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED W OF FLORIDA NEAR 27N87W.
LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE WITH
STRONGER SLY WINDS REACHING UP TO 20 KT ALONG THE TEXAS
COASTLINE. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...REMNANTS OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER CUBA. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
DOWN THE SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ACROSS CUBA. EXPECT SURFACE
RIDGING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH DRY AIR AND MOSTLY
FAIR CONDITIONS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MAINLY ELY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE E PACIFIC
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-12N
BETWEEN 80W-83W...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF
HISPANIOLA IS SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE SE
BAHAMAS TO HAITI ALONG WITH CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO N OF 17N BETWEEN
64W-77W. ELSEWHERE...A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER AROUND A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC IS KEEPING CONDITIONS
FAIR. A FEW STATIONS CONTINUE TO REPORT THE PRESENCE OF DUST.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES WILL BE ENTERING THE FAR ERN CARIBBEAN BRINGING
MOISTURE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THIS
PORTION OF THE BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS
MUCH OF THE W ATLC. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES
TO SPIN N OF HISPANIOLA GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 63W-68W JUST N OF
PUERTO RICO. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
ACROSS THE WRN BAHAMAS. FARTHER E...RIDGING DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 40N42W. A DRY
SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACCOMPANIED BY DUST COVERS MUCH OF THE
TROPICAL ATLC KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS BETWEEN 38W-54W N OF 20N...WITH UPPER RIDGING TO THE S
OF 20N AND E OF 38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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