[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131734
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N33W TO 4N35W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
THE WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ALSO
ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN
AREA OF DUST IS ALSO NOTED ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY SAHARAN AIR
LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC SUPPRESSING CONVECTION
NEAR THE WAVE. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS
SUPPRESSED AND MASKED DUE TO A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC KEEPING CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM AND RESTRICTED TO
THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 92W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS NOW MOVED MOSTLY W OF HONDURAS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 10N25W 11N35W 8N42W 10N53W
8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN
15W-20W...AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 32W-37W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 42W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N83W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. LIGHT 5 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED
OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. 10-15 KT SE-S WINDS ARE OVER THE W
GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE N
GULF N OF 27N. FURTHER S...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
NE MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THIS CENTER
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WITHIN 45 NM RADIUS OF 21N97W. EXPECT...AIRMASS
THUNDERSTORMS OVER S FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS AS A SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE BAHAMAS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION
OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 80W. CONVECTION IS
NE OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE BAHAMAS. A 1009 MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN
78W-83W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 80W MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR
22N66W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
EXPECT...AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS OVER W CUBA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 75W-78W MOVING W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OFF
THE COAST OF N FLORIDA FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 78W-80W. A DOMINATE
1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 41N44W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR
22N66W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
24N50W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 25N27W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF 17N E OF 63W.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS W OF 63W TO BEYOND FLORIDA.
EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA







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