[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 130516
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0430 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N28W TO 8N29W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
THE WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS ALSO ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN TOTAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY ALSO
INDICATE AN AREA OF DUST ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER
IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC SUPPRESSING CONVECTION NEAR
THE WAVE. HOWEVER...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 26W-33W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS
SUPPRESSED AND MASKED DUE TO A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC KEEPING CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM AND RESTRICTED TO
THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 49W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT IS
ACROSS THE FAR WRN CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE E PACIFIC. THE WAVE
ALSO LIES AHEAD OF A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND A LARGE AREA OF
DUST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND INTO THE ERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...DUE TO A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS NRN CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 11N-17N
BETWEEN 88W-93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM
8N-17N BETWEEN 80W-87W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 10N29W 10N47W 8N64W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 10W-19W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN
33W-38W...AND FROM EQ-12N BETWEEN 52W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS LIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W
MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FAR SW GULF AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N94W. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BE INFLUENCED BY A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W IN THE E
PACIFIC. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1015
MB HIGH CENTERED W OF FLORIDA NEAR 26N85W. LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC
FLOW IS AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE WITH STRONGER SLY WINDS
REACHING UP TO 20 KT ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE RESULT OF
SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE...ENHANCING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS. EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
BASIN ALONG WITH DRY AIR AND MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W/87W IN THE FAR WRN CARIBBEAN ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA CONTINUES BRINGING ENHANCED MOISTURE TO THIS
PORTION OF THE AREA SUPPORTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE COASTAL WATERS. SEE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NRN CENTRAL AMERICA AND
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH A HORIZONTAL AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO
NEAR 14N79W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR
EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC. SEVERAL STATIONS ARE ALSO
INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF DUST. DUE TO THIS STABLE AIR
MASS...MUCH OF THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
NOTED ACROSS CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N DUE
TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR AN EXTENSION OF THE E PACIFIC ITCZ
FROM COSTA RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA. EXPECT FAIR CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN UNDER THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N BETWEEN
77W-81W. A SECOND SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE
SE BAHAMAS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
21N-24N BETWEEN 75W-79W...AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. A LINE OF
SHOWERS IS ALSO NOTED OFF THE SE COAST OF FLORIDA DUE TO WIND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BETWEEN
THESE TWO UPPER SHORTWAVES. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING DOMINATES
THE ENTIRE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
41N45W. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACCOMPANIED BY DUST COVERS MUCH
OF THE TROPICAL ATLC KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR. ALOFT...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS BETWEEN 59W-67W...WITH UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN
50W-59W...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN
36W-50W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE FAR ERN ATLC CENTERED
W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 26N25W.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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