[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111157
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 19W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...IT IS
ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST
SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N68W TO 8N69W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT
COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INDICATED BY TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND
DUST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC IS CURRENTLY LIMITING CONVECTION
NEAR THE WAVE. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 68W-71W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N81W TO 8N82W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT
COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN EVIDENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE COMBINATION OF THE WAVE
AND A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT IS ENHANCING NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 73W-78W OVER COLOMBIA...AND
NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-17N
BETWEEN 79W-87W IMPACTING NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM
22N94W TO 11N94W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A
MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-21N
BETWEEN 93W-98W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 9N22W 11N35W 6N47W 6N59W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST
OF AFRICA FROM 5N-16N BETWEEN 13W-23W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO
FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 36W-46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS INLAND OVER GUYANA FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 58W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 93W-98W. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N85W...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER SW MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED
BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
26N87W KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR
WEATHER. HOWEVER...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES IS ENHANCED A FEW ISOLATED
CELLS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 29N E OF 89W. EXPECT SURFACE
RIDGING TO DOMINATE THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAINTAINING
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA
OF CONVECTION ACROSS NRN COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERING THE WRN CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 17N85W...AND AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST W OF CENTRAL AMERICA. MAINLY
NLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ACCOMPANIED BY
DRY AIR. MANY STATIONS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES
ARE REPORTING DUST ASSOCIATED WITH A SAHARAN AIR LAYER. THIS
COMBINATION IS KEEPING MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN
UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A SECOND TROPICAL
WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO INLAND VENEZUELA. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REMAIN ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL
WAVE CONTINUES WWD. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SECOND TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR 35N67W TO
22N73W IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NE OF THE
BAHAMAS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 70W-73W...AND NEAR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 75W-79W. NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGES
ARE TO EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR 27N59W IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 59W-62W. BROAD SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATES THE ENTIRE AREA ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH
NEAR 36N49W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 26N45W...E
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS BETWEEN THE AZORES ISLANDS AND THE CANARY ISLANDS
CONTINUING SW TO NEAR 23N36W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE
FAR E ATLC CENTERED OVER WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 27N11W.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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