[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0430 UTC...


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N32W TO 7N33W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...IT IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN
AIR AND DUST SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W S OF 19N THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE LAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY ALSO INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF DRY
SAHARAN AIR AND DUST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC LIMITING
CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED
OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND INLAND OVER VENEZUELA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE COMBINATION OF THE WAVE AND A
DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT IS ENHANCING NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 72W-78W OVER COLOMBIA...AND FROM 11N-16N
BETWEEN 79W-86W IMPACTING NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 95W S OF 24N
MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 93W-96W. A CLUSTER OF
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 20N-21N BETWEEN 96W-97W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 6N22W 8N34W 5N49W 5N58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-15N BETWEEN
10W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-8N BETWEEN 35W-44W...AND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 48W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 93W-96W...AND A CLUSTER
OF STRONG CONVECTION FROM 20N-21N BETWEEN 96W-97W. THIS ACTIVITY
IS ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N86W...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER SW MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED
BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
25N85W KEEPING MUCH OF THE ARE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR
WEATHER. HOWEVER...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES IS ENHANCED A FEW ISOLATED
CELLS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N E OF 93W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS DOWN THE ERN FLORIDA PENINSULA DUE TO SEABREEZE
CONVERGENCE. MOST OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAVE NOW
DISSIPATED. EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING TO DOMINATE THE BASIN OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA
OF CONVECTION ACROSS NRN COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERING THE WRN CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 18N86W...AND AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST W OF CENTRAL AMERICA. MAINLY
NLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ACCOMPANIED BY
DRY AIR. MANY STATIONS ACROSS HISPANIOLA ARE REPORTING DUST
ASSOCIATED WITH A SAHARAN AIR LAYER. THIS COMBINATION IS KEEPING
MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM
THE MONA PASSAGE TO INLAND VENEZUELA. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES
WWD. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE SECOND TROPICAL
WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR 36N68W TO
24N73W IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NE OF THE
BAHAMAS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 68W-73W. NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGES
ARE TO EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR 27N59W IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
25N-31N BETWEEN 58W-62W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE
ENTIRE AREA ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH NEAR 37N50W KEEPING
CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. ALOFT...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 24N45W E OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
BETWEEN THE AZORES ISLANDS AND CANARY ISLANDS CONTINUING SW TO
NEAR 15N36W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE FAR E ATLC CENTERED
OVER WESTERN SAHARA.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON







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