[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC...


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 38W WAS RELOCATED TO THE E ALONG
32W S OF 16N BASED ON SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS...MOISTURE MAXIMUM
ONT HE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...UPPER AIR DATA AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST
PARTIALLY MASKING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND SUPPRESSING ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 66W/67W S OF 19N
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AS
INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST THAT
COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC THUS LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY/
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AS INDICATED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF
16N W OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 80W ENHANCED BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE S GULF OF MEXICO IS ALONG 94W S OF 24N
MOVING W 15-20 KT BASED ON A RECENT ASCAT PASS AND UPPER AIR
DATA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND
WITHIN 90 N M ALONG THE COAST OF S MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA BETWEEN 88W-96W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 6N20W 9N30W 5N41W 5N54W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF W AFRICA WITHIN 90 NM
ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 9N-12N. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 7N-12N E OF 19W
TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 20W-23W AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG
THE ITCZ FROM 36W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE S GULF IS BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA/YUCATAN PENINSULA AND AN UPPER LOW
OVER SW MEXICO WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE N GULF ANCHORED
OVER W TEXAS EXTENDING AN AXIS ALONG 30N ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO
THE FAR W ATLC. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS S
FLORIDA TO A 1018 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS WELL INLAND OVER THE SE US GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO
TEXAS AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE N GULF COAST FROM THE BIG BEND
AREA OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA BORDER. A
SEABREEZE SURFACE TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER S FLORIDA S OF 26N AND IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS
FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 80W-83W. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE. THIS SCENARIO IS LEAVING
MOST OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA COVERING THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 77W INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A MID LEVEL
LOW IS MOVING OFF CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION.
THESE TWO FEATURES ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 16N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA TO
NICARAGUA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 19N W OF 83W TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND THE
YUCATAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 77W
TO FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO E CUBA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE N GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NE
FLORIDA OVER THE FAR W ATLC TO NEAR 29N73W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W TO BEYOND 32N67W
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N
BETWEEN 70W-78W. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
26N60W COVERING THE AREA N OF 18N BETWEEN 52W-65W AN GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 58W-62W. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 70W ANCHORED BY
A 1030 MB HIGH 700 NM ENE OF BERMUDA AND THEN NARROWS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER S FLORIDA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND INTO THE E ATLC IS UNDER
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT LEAVING THE AREA
UNDER FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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