[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N34W TO 8N37W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THE WAVE LIES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
LOCATED EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS AS NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ALSO LOCATED IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER
ACCOMPANIED BY DUST SURROUNDING THE WAVE TO THE NORTH. WITH DUST
IMPACTING THE WAVE N OF 12N...CONVECTION IS RESTRICTED TO THE
ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDING
FROM 18N60W TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 9N63W MOVING W 15-20
KT. WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT IN INFRA-RED IMAGERY
WITH THIS WAVE AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VALUES
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE ENERGY GENERATED BY
THIS WAVE IS TRANSFERRING TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR
26N59W. THEREFORE...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION...SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION...IS FOUND NE OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. THE
WAVE LIES WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE MAXIMUM OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED WEAK TO
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA WITHIN 100 NM BETWEEN 68W-73W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 90W FROM 11N TO 23N MOVING W AT 8 KT. THE
AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE HAS TRACKED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS BRINGING PLENTY OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LOCATED INLAND...WITH
LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 16N W OF 78W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WEST AFRICA...OFF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W...WESTWARD ALONG 8N20W 10N30W
9N40W 8N50W 10N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS OF WEST AFRICA FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND
20W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE W OF 20W...WITHIN
130 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND
STABLE AIR ALOFT NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SUPPORTING
SURFACE RIDGING AND PROVIDING RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 90W S
OF 22N IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22 AND WITHIN 50 NM OFF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF WESTERN CUBA BETWEEN 83W AND 86W INCLUDING THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER LIGHT E-SE WINDS
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF A TROPICAL
WAVE AND DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 90W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS
LOCATED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...S OF 16N W OF 78W INTO NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS. PLENTY OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. FARTHER EAST...A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE IMPACTING
THE SE CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FROM S OF 16N BETWEEN 65W AND 72W AND E OF 65W. FOR MORE
INFO REGARDING THESE TROPICAL WAVES...SEE TROPICAL WAVES
DISCUSSION ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN
THE EASTERLY TRADES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WESTERN
ATLANTIC N OF 24N W OF 70W...SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 32N69W TO 24N73W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 130 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NE OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W...ASSOCIATED TO A
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE
ENERGY GENERATED BY THIS WAVE IS TRANSFERRING TO AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW SPINNING NEAR 26N59W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
25N-28N BETWEEN 55W-60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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