[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N31W TO 06N35W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THE WAVE LIES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
LOCATED EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS AS NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ALSO LOCATED IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-38W WITH A DRY SAHARAN
AIR LAYER ACCOMPANIED BY DUST SURROUNDING THE WAVE TO THE NORTH.
WITH DUST IMPACTING THE WAVE N OF 10N...CONVECTION IS RESTRICTED
TO THE ITCZ WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 04N-12N BETWEEN
31W-37W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N58W TO 07N62W MOVING W 15-20 KT
AND APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THIS WAVE AS
IT IS LOCATED WITHIN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BETWEEN 50W-61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
06N-17N BETWEEN 54W-62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
FROM 08N-14N BETWEEN 61W-65W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N67W TO 09N70W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE MAXIMUM OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY MOVING
ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 64W-70W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-15N BETWEEN 65W-72W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 24N84W THROUGH THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 85W TO NEAR 12N83W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
THE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE HAS TRACKED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN THE PAST FEW DAYS BRINGING PLENTY OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. THIS EVENING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 78W-86W WHILE
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
18N-24N BETWEEN 80W-92W...IMPACTING WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...AND YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N13W 12N31W 08N45W 11N59W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM OF THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 11W-17W. ELSEWHERE...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-15N BETWEEN 21W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR
28N87W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS RELATIVELY
CLEAR SKIES N OF 24N AND W OF 92W. HOWEVER...THE APPROACH OF
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE SE GULF
AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER
EASTERN CUBA AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF
NEAR 20N93W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S
OF 24N BETWEEN 79W AND 92W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER
LIGHT E-SE WINDS WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE FORECAST ALONG ROUGHLY
27N THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WEST OF A LINE FROM
22N80W TO 11N74W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...NICARAGUA...AND
HONDURAS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 78W-87W. PLENTY OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DUE
TO S-SE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR
19N76W. FARTHER EAST...A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE IMPACTING
THE SE CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS REMAINING GENERALLY S OF 17N E OF 63W AND S OF 15N BETWEEN
63W-72W. THIS ACTIVITY IS LARGELY INFLUENCED ALOFT BY AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED BY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT EXTENDS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SE FROM
EASTERN CUBA TO OVER TRINIDAD NEAR 11N61W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
CENTERED NEAR 37N75W THAT EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
FROM THE LOW ALONG 32N77W TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N84W.
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 32N72W TO 29N79W AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SW FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND OVER THE W ATLC WATERS N OF 30N BETWEEN 72W-78W.
FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC FALLS BENEATH AN
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER
OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR 19N76W TO 30N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE LOCATED FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 65W-76W...
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE NW BAHAMAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N54W.
HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N-27N ALONG 58W
THAT IS CO-LOCATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 25N56W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 54W-59W. ELSEWHERE
ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS
CENTERED NEAR 24N40W THAT EXTENDS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN
30W-48W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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