[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1600 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N29W TO 5N32W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THE WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ALSO
AROUND THE WAVE AXIS SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE TO A
DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACCOMPANIED BY DUST THAT EXTENDS AROUND
THE WAVE...CONVECTION IS RESTRICTED TO THE ITCZ WHERE SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN
30W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N56W TO 8N60W MOVING W 15-20 KT AND
APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT
THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE
ALSO LIES AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM INDICATED BY
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 54W-60W. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY IS ALSO FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 61W-64W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N65W TO 9N67W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THE WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CYCLONIC
FLOW IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS INDICATED BY VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 65W-69W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM S OF WRN CUBA NEAR 22N84W TO PANAMA
NEAR 9N81W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE SRN EXTENT OF
THE WAVE FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 81W-85W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG
CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 76W-80W.
HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE ASSOCIATED MORE WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE ITCZ. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO NEAR THE NRN EXTENT OF THE WAVE ACROSS WRN CUBA FROM
18N-23N BETWEEN 80W-86W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 9N33W 7N45W 11N58W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 19W027W. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 38W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO REMAINS INLAND OVER NRN MEXICO NEAR
26.6N 102.1W SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF SRN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY STILL INDICATES STRONG MOISTURE ALONG THE FAR WRN GULF
OF MEXICO WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED HUGGING THE MEXICO
COASTLINE FROM 23N97W TO 18N93W. SURFACE RIDGING IS BUILDING
ACROSS THE ERN AND CENTRAL GULF PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OFT HE BASIN. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FAR SERN GULF DUE TO A SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED W OF S FLORIDA FROM 26N82W TO 24N83W...AND A
TROPICAL WAVE S OF WRN CUBA. ALOFT...DRY AIR IS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE BASIN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 20N90W. EXPECT SURFACE RIDING TO CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE NW AND SW
CARIBBEAN DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM FAR W CUBA TO
PANAMA. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A LARGE
CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF PANAMA FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
76W-80W. THIS MAY BE INFLUENCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR AN
EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ FROM COSTA RICA TO COLOMBIA...THE TROPICAL
WAVE TO THE W...AND ALSO DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERING THE ERN CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 13N69W AND ELY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE E PACIFIC. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS
THE ERN CARIBBEAN AND VENEZUELA IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 65W-69W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR
WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE ERN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NEAR BOTH TROPICAL WAVES AS THEY PROGRESS
WWD...AND NEAR A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY E OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS THAT IS ALREADY PRODUCING CONVECTION APPROACHING THE
AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 35N75W
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE WRN ATLC SUPPORTING SEVERAL SURFACE
TROUGHS. ONE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N OF THE AREA FROM A LOW NEAR
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N74W TO 30N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N69W
TO 27N77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE WRN
BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FROM 24N-30N
BETWEEN 66W-74W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N69W. FARTHER E...A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 37N54W.
HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N56W TO 22N57W
COLLOCATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 24N55W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS.
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 23N38W. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BETWEEN
THIS UPPER RIDGE AND A SECOND UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NW
AFRICA NEAR 26N2W.

FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON



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