[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091159
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 30W FROM 5N TO 15N MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE LIES BETWEEN BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE
WEST AND AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EAST OF THE WAVE
AXIS TO THE W AFRICA COAST. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACCOMPANIED
BY DUST EXTENDS AROUND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE RESULTING
IN CONVECTION BEING CONFINED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N52W TO 8N56W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE AXIS WHILE A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER  FOLLOWS EAST OF
THE WAVE AXIS THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC. A DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM IS ALSO INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN
52W AND 59W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR EAST CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W S OF 14N
MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE LIES  WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE
MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WAVE AXIS INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 14N BETWEEN
60W-68W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N82W TO THE
COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA NEAR 10N79W MOVING W AT 4-8 KT. THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ADVECTING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 10N-23N W OF 76W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WEST AFRICA...OFF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...WESTWARD ALONG 10N30W
7N40W 9N52W. A MESOSCALE COMPLEX SYSTEM IS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS OF GUINEA-BISSAU...SENEGAL...THE GAMBIA...AND MAURITANIA
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OFF
THE COAST OF THESE COUNTRIES. ASIDE AREAS OF CONVECTION RELATED
TO TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF
40W...AND WITHIN 60 NM W OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS WELL INLAND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN MEXICO. HOWEVER...IT CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GULF
W OF 95W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF...A SURFACE
RIDGING IS BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF FROM HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE NORTHERN SECTION OF
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS AND THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL S OF 25N E OF 87W. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION...LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS W OF 78W...DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 20N87W...AND A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W. AREAS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALSO EXTEND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA S OF 14N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W
S OF 15N IMPACTING THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND WINDWARD
ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED IN
THE EASTERLY TRADES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC
SPINNING NEAR 35N74W...JUST ABOUT 50 NM E OF NORTH CAROLINA.
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 65W A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW CENTER AND ENTERS THE AREA
OF DISCUSSION THROUGH 32N73W EXTENDING SW TO 29N78W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AS
THE DEEP LAYERED LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE N...SEVERAL OTHER SURFACE
TROUGHS WILL BE ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION TODAY FOLLOWING
A SIMILAR BEHAVIOR FROM THE CURRENT SURFACE TROUGH. A SEPARATE
SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED WNW OF THE BAHAMAS AND ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM
23N-26N W OF 77W. THIS TROUGH IN PARTICULAR IS ASSOCIATED TO
THE NORTHERN SECTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
CUBA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CIRCULATION AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS GENERATING AN UPPER
LEVEL MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY RIVER CREATING ENOUGH
ATMOSPHERIC LIFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 24N TO BEYOND
32N BETWEEN 65W-73W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLANTIC PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR 25N55W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
WEAK SHOWERS FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 55W AND 57W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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