[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 27W FROM 5N TO 15N MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE LIES BETWEEN BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE
WEST AND AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EAST OF THE WAVE
AXIS TO THE W AFRICA COAST. A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACCOMPANIED
BY DUST EXTENDS AROUND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE RESULTING
IN CONVECTION BEING CONFINED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W FROM 7N TO 20N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE AXIS WHILE A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER  FOLLOWS EAST OF
THE WAVE AXIS THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC. A DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM IS ALSO INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N TO 15N BETWEEN
50W AND 56W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 14N MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE
WAVE LIES  WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS INDICATED BY SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 58W-63W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W FROM 10N TO 22N MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ADVECTING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-24N BETWEEN 77W-82W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WEST AFRICA...OFF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W...WESTWARD ALONG 13N25W 10N30W
7N40W 9N50W. A MESOSCALE COMPLEX SYSTEM IS QUICKLY MOVING INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS OF GUINEA-BISSAU...SENEGAL...THE GAMBIA...AND
MAURITANIA WITH MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION. ASIDE AREAS OF
CONVECTION RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GULF
W OF 95W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S
OF 21N. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF...A SURFACE
RIDGING IS BUILDING ACROSS THE NE GULF FROM HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE NORTHERN
SECTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL S OF 25N E OF 87W. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION...LOOK FOR FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS W OF 78W INCLUDING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
CUBA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND BELIZE DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N87W...AND A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W. AREAS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALSO EXTEND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA S OF 14N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
ALONG 61W S OF 14N IMPACTING THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND
WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC
SPINNING NEAR 34N73W. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE W ATLC
W OF 64W SUPPORTING SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY ANALYZED AS SURFACE
TROUGHS. THE FIRST ONE ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION THROUGH
32N71W EXTENDING SW TO 29N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AS THE DEEP LAYERED LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR THE SAME LOCATION...SEVERAL OTHER SURFACE
TROUGHS WILL BE ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FOLLOWING A
SIMILAR BEHAVIOR FROM THE FIRST SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 3
TO 6 HOUR. A SEPARATE SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE NW
BAHAMAS AND ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 74W-81W. THIS TROUGH IN
PARTICULAR IS ASSOCIATED TO THE NORTHERN SECTION OF A TROPICAL
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CUBA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
ALONG 63W IS GENERATING AN UPPER LEVEL MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
RIVER CREATING ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC LIFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 23N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 64W-69W. BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC PROVIDING OVERALL
FAIR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR
25N55W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 23N
TO 28N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net