[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 082358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CENTERED NEAR 26.2N 98.4W AT 08/2100
UTC OR ABOUT 10 NM W OF MCALLEN TEXAS MOVING W-NW AT 11 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF 94W OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TO INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AND EASTERN
MEXICO. SEE THE LAST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FUTURE
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCPAT2/WTNT32.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N23W TO 04N25W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE LIES BETWEEN BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE
WEST AND AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM 08N-18N
EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS TO THE W AFRICA COAST. A DRY SAHARAN AIR
LAYER ACCOMPANIED BY DUST EXTENDS AROUND THE WAVE...RESULTING IN
CONVECTION BEING CONFINED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 17W-23W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N47W TO 14N50W TO 06N51W MOVING W
AT 15-20 KT. BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AXIS WHILE A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER
FOLLOWS EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
ATLC FROM 09N-22N TO 35W. A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM IS ALSO
INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY EXTENDING FROM
26N42W INTO THE ITCZ AXIS REGION NEAR 06N51W. NO ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N59W TO 07N62W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
THE WAVE LIES  WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY S OF 14N
BETWEEN 56W-62W. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WAVE AXIS INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN
57W-64W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N80W TO 08N77W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ADVECTING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 74W-82W. WHILE CONVECTION HAS
DIMINISHED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS...SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN
75W-81W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 16N17W 12N24W 07N30W 07N49W 09N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
02N-09N BETWEEN 26W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
THIS EVENING W OF A LINE FROM THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER NEAR
30N94W TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N88W. WHILE THE
CENTER IS WELL INLAND OVER THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY...A BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS IS
FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 94W-97W ALONG AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENT SE WINDS. ELSEWHERE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF...
A SURFACE RIDGING IS BUILDING ACROSS THE NE GULF FROM HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE GULF WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...FURTHER SUPPORTING THE SURFACE
RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE PROVIDING THE GULF WITH
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS E OF 90W THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS W OF 82W AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS NOTED BY
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND MAXIMUM DAYTIME
INSTABILITIES ARE ALSO RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVER CUBA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE
EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG 80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS WITHIN 280 NM EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. AREAS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ALSO EXTEND OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA...INCLUDING THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF
14N BETWEEN 66W-77W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N64W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR
WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE APPROACH OF A
TROPICAL ALONG 60W/61W IS IMPACTING THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN WATERS
AND WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 14N E OF 64W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS THIS EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
34N74W THAT CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE W ATLC SUPPORTING SEVERAL
WAVES OF ENERGY ANALYZED AS SURFACE TROUGHS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
LOCATED OVER THE NW BAHAMAS AND ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN
73W-81W. FARTHER NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS A 1010 LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 33N74W THAT EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 32N72W TO
29N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 69W-78W. FARTHER
EAST...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CIRCULATION AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 63W IS PROVIDING
MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CREATING ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC LIFT
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 23N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN
63W-69W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS TO THE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG
35N/36N. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N52W TO
24N4W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 52W-56W.
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N53W AND COINCIDES
WITH THE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 53W WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS
CENTERED NEAR 21N38W TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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