[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS NOW MOVED INLAND NEAR THE
TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO NEAR 26.0N 97.7W ...OR ABOUT 35 MI ESE OF
MCALLEN TEXAS...AS OF 1800 UTC. THE DEPRESSION MADE LANDFALL
AROUND 1515 UTC NEAR THE SRN END OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND TEXAS AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE NW AT 15 KTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NRN
MEXICO/SRN TEXAS COASTLINE FROM W OF 95W. THIS SYSTEM MAY
PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS
OF FAR NERN MEXICO AND COASTAL TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS JUST E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM
16N22W TO 4N26W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ALSO AROUND THE WAVE AXIS SEEN
IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CONFIRMED BY A WINDSAT
SCATTEROMETER PASS. DUE TO A DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACCOMPANIED
BY DUST THAT EXTENDS AROUND THE WAVE...CONVECTION IS RESTRICTED
TO THE ITCZ WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 24W-27W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N46W TO 4N50W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N59W TO 6N61W MOVING
W NEAR 10 KT AND APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE WAVE LIES
AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS INDICATED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N
BETWEEN 59W-64W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM S OF CUBA NEAR 20N79W TO NRN COLOMBIA
NEAR 9N77W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE SRN EXTENT OF THE WAVE
FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 76W-79W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN
74W-77W...AND FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 75W-78W AFFECTING ERN CUBA.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 8N25W 4N39W 9N59W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 16W-23W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 27W-35W...AND BETWEEN 40W-46W. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY IS ALSO FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 52W-55W ACROSS FRENCH
GUIANA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE WRN
GULF OF MEXICO. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS. SURFACE
RIDGING IS BUILDING ACROSS THE ERN GULF FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE N OVER THE SE CONUS. ALOFT...DRY AIR IS SINKING DOWN FROM
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER ALABAMA KEEPING
CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN. SOME MOISTURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR SE GULF EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WRN GULF AS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO MOVES FARTHER INLAND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE FAR W
CARIBBEAN W OF 83W DUE TO MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND BY TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE ENHANCED BY
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CUBA TO THE NRN COLOMBIA COAST IS ENHANCING SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION NEAR THE SRN EXTENT OF THE WAVE FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN
76W-79W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO
E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 74W-77W...AND FROM
17N-21N BETWEEN 75W-78W AFFECTING ERN CUBA. AREAS OF STRONG
CONVECTION ARE ACROSS NRN VENEZUELA AND REACHING THE COASTAL
WATERS S OF 13N BETWEEN 64W-74W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE ERN
CARIBBEAN AND A SECOND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE S OVER BRAZIL.
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR
WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE ERN CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR
13N64W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE SRN
WINDWARD ISLANDS AS A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE E APPROACHES. EXPECT
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NEAR BOTH TROPICAL WAVES AS THEY
PROGRESS WWD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 34N72W
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE WRN ATLC SUPPORTING SEVERAL SURFACE
TROUGHS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF SE FLORIDA ALONG 79W FROM
24N-27N ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-26N
BETWEEN 74W-81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG N OF
29N BETWEEN 72W-77W NEAR A SURFACE LOW TO THE N THAT IS NEARLY
COLLOCATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 31N65W TO A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 28N70W CONTINUING TO 27N73W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN
66W-70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO N OF
27N BETWEEN 62W-68W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION AND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 23N64W. FARTHER
E...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS TO THE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. HOWEVER...A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N51W TO 23N52W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 51W-54W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS BETWEEN 44W-60W CENTERED NEAR 25N52W...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE E BETWEEN 30W-44W CENTERED NEAR 20N37W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PORTUGAL COAST TO W OF THE
CANARY AND CAPE VERDE ISLANDS COVERS THE FAR ERN ATLC.

FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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