[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081205
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER 2 IS CENTERED IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 25.7N 96.2W AS OF 1200 UTC. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT
80 MI NE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...OR ABOUT 165 MI NE OF LA PESCA
MEXICO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THIS
SYSTEM IS MOVING NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 KT WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS
COVERING MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 92W...MOVING NW INTO THE
COAST OF TEXAS AND MEXICO N OF 22N. BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ALSO COVERS INLAND PORTIONS OF MEXICO S OF 20N...GUATEMALA...
BELIZE...AND WESTERN HONDURAS PRODUCING STRONG CONVECTION IN
THESE REGIONS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND NEAR THE
TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER LATER TODAY. ALSO...COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND COASTAL
TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. SOME SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING INLAND LATER TODAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W FROM 5N TO 15N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE A NORTHERN LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM LOCATED WEST OF
THE AXIS NEAR 12N22W. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W FROM 5N TO 17N MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ALSO LIES WITHIN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
CONVECTION REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED N OF 7N DUE TO SAHARAN AIR
LAYER NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE...HOWEVER SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF 7N EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ BETWEEN 43W-50W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N57W TO INLAND OVER EASTERN
VENEZUELA NEAR 5N62W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL
FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WAVE ALSO LIES WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 57W-61W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM EASTER CUBA NEAR 21N77W SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTH
WESTERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N77W MOVING W AT 2-5 KT. THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT ON TPW
IMAGERY. MOST OF THE ENERGY GENERATED BY IT CONTINUES TO BE
TRANSFERRED TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. DESPITE THE
CURRENT NATURE OF THE WAVE....THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN 71W AND 79W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WEST AFRICA...OFF THE COAST
OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...WESTWARD ALONG 9N20W 5N30W 4N40W
5N60W. ASIDE AREAS OF CONVECTION RELATED TO TROPICAL
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER TWO IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR
25N95W EMBEDDED IN SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOTED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVERING MUCH OF
THE WESTERN GULF W OF 91W. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS
NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA PRODUCING SE WINDS 15-25 KT N OF 25N W OF 88W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF E OF 90W IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE
EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
STRAIGHTS OF FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE FAR NW BASIN...W
OF 83W...ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO LOCATED OUTSIDE THE AREA OF DISCUSSION
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W...FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO
THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTH WESTERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N77W. THIS
WAVE APPEARS STATIONARY AND MOST OF THE ENERGY GENERATED BY IT
CONTINUES TO BE TRANSFERRED TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. DESPITE THE CURRENT NATURE OF THE WAVE....THIS SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 71W AND 79W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION...FAIR WEATHER IS OBSERVED WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA SPINNING NEAR 34N72W. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A
SURFACE LOW NE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS EAST OF THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 28N62W. THE COMBINATION
OF THESE FEATURES IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE W ATLC FROM 21N TO BEYOND
32N BETWEEN 62W AND 72W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE FAR W
ATLANTIC ALONG 78W FROM 23N TO 28N PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS W OF 75W.
DIFFLUENCE FLOW IN THE FAR UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FURTHER SUPPORTING THE OVERALL TROUGHING IN THIS REGION. FARTHER
EAST...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC ANCHORED BY A BROAD SURFACE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW CIRCULATING
AROUND 35N52W...PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR 27N50W IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 51W FROM 22N TO 28N. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N TO 29N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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