[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 IS CENTERED IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 24N95W. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM ESE OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...OR ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM E OF LA PESCA
MEXICO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THIS
SYSTEM IS MOVING NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVERING
MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 89W. BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ALSO COVERS INLAND PORTIONS OF MEXICO S OF 20N...GUATEMALA...AND
BELIZE...PRODUCING STRONG CONVECTION IN THESE REGIONS. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND NEAR THE TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER
LATER TODAY. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING INLAND
LATER TODAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W FROM 6N TO 15N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE A NORTHERN LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM LOCATED WEST OF
THE AXIS NEAR 12N22W. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W FROM 4N TO 17N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ALSO LIES WITHIN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMUM INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
CONVECTION REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED N OF 7N DUE TO SAHARAN AIR
LAYER NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE...HOWEVER SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF 7N EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ BETWEEN 42W-48W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N58W TO 5N62W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS INDICATED BY
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO LIES WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 55W-61W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM EASTER CUBA NEAR 21N77W SOUTHWARD
ACROSS TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTH CENTRAL COLOMBIA NEAR
12N76W MOVING W AT 2-5 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT ON TPW IMAGERY. MOST OF THE
ENERGY GENERATED BY IT CONTINUES TO BE TRANSFERRED TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW/TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...NORTH OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA. DESPITE THE CURRENT NATURE OF THE
WAVE....THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 71W AND
79W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WEST AFRICA...OFF THE COAST
OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...WESTWARD ALONG 9N20W 5N30W 4N40W
5N50W. ASIDE AREAS OF CONVECTION RELATED TO TROPICAL
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 24N94W
EMBEDDED IN SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOTED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVERING MUCH OF THE WESTERN
GULF W OF 89W. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS NORTH OF THE
LOW CENTER TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
PRODUCING SE WINDS 15-20 KT N OF 25N W OF 88W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE EMBEDDED
WITHIN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE SE GULF AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA E OF 84W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LEAVING THE NW BASIN...N OF 18N W OF
83W...ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCATED OUTSIDE THE AREA OF DISCUSSION OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W...FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO THE
COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N76W. THIS WAVE APPEARS TO
REDUCED ITS WESTWARD MOVEMENT AND MOST OF THE ENERGY GENERATED
BY IT CONTINUES TO BE TRANSFERRED TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. DESPITE THE CURRENT NATURE OF THE WAVE....THIS SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 71W AND 79W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION...FAIR WEATHER IS OBSERVED WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA SPINNING NEAR 34N72W. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A
RATHER N TO S ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 70W GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
THE W ATLC FROM 20N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 63W AND 74W. A RATHER
SHORT SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR W ATLANTIC ALONG 78W FROM
23N TO 27N PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMAS W OF 75W. DIFFLUENCE FLOW IN THE
FAR UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE SUPPORTING THE OVERALL
TROUGHING IN THIS REGION. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY TWO MAIN
AREAS OF SURFACE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR 36N23W AND 35N52W
PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
SPINNING NEAR 27N50W IS ENHANCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED WEAK TO
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 22N TO 29N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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