[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND AS A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IS MOVING W-NW
AT 10-15 KT. ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE HAS FRACTURED N-NW AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME ABSORBED BY A REMNANT
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WITH THIS SYSTEM. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND
06/1606 UTC DEPICTED SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT
BETWEEN 84W-88W OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS. WITH THE INCREASED
WIND FIELD SPEEDS...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED EAST OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WHICH IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 17N-32N BETWEEN 85W-92W...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...MIDDLE GULF WATERS...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...AND SE LOUISIANA THIS EVENING.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 20N MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE
LIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM
INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 29W-36W. A
SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND DUST ARE LOCATED EAST OF THE WAVE E OF
30W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN
34W-43W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N53W TO 11N55W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN TRACKED AS A RELATIVELY LOW-LATITUDE AND
REMAINS LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND A DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
BETWEEN 50W-60W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-12N BETWEEN 51W-59W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N69W ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA TO
NW VENEZUELA NEAR 07N70W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT ON TPW IMAGERY
THAT STRETCHES FROM A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE W ATLC
NEAR 25N64W TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 63W-72W. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE LIES BENEATH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG 26N WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 65W-71W. A SIMILAR AREA
OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER NW VENEZUELA AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 68W-73W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 09N33W 10N36W 08N53W 07N57W
08N65W. A COMPLEX OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS
MOVED OFF THE W AFRICA COAST AND IS LOCATED FROM 05N-12N BETWEEN
14W-20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 08N BETWEEN 32W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO E OF 92W...LARGELY LOCATED E OF A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM THE SW LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 30N92W TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
EXTEND FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CHANNEL NORTHWARD TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION BETWEEN 85W-92W. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 25N95W AND AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EASTERN GULF E OF 90W. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO
STRONG DRY AIR ALOFT SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER THIS EVENING N OF 23N W OF 92W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA DUE TO
MAXIMUM DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DYNAMICS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS BELIZE
AND WESTERN HONDURAS AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION THAT IS
GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN W OF 85W AND OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
WESTERN PANAMA N-NW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS ENTIRE AREA
FALLS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED
NEAR 21N86W PROVIDING AN OVERALL UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FARTHER EAST...
A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA TO NW
VENEZUELA ALONG 70W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-73W...INCLUDING PUERTO
RICO...THE MONA PASSAGE...AND HISPANIOLA. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS
ALSO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FARTHER
SOUTH OVER NW VENEZUELA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS S OF 14N
BETWEEN 68W-74W. ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS E OF 68W TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC NEAR 12N60W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
36N63W EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 32N64W TO 26N70W
THEN WESTWARD TO 76W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 32N59W ALONG 26N70W 27N78W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE W ATLC FROM 21N TO THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN 59W TO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N80W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH...
ENERGY FRACTURED NORTHWARD FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...EXTENDS FROM 27N63W TO 23N66W ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN
60W-65W. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NW
OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N35W PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N42W TO
22N44W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
22N46W AND DIPS TROUGHING TO 14N BETWEEN 40W-50W. AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED TO THE E-SE CENTERED NEAR 17N29W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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