[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND HONDURAS INTO THE E PACIFIC
ALONG 26N90W 18N88W 8N89W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION
IS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 86W-90W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM
21N-24N BETWEEN 82W-88W. WHILE THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THOUGH TONIGHT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THE
WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM INDICATED BY
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE AXIS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 32W-41W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N54W TO 2N52W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE LIES EMBEDDED IN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 51W-57W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N69W ACROSS ERN HISPANIOLA TO NW
VENEZUELA NEAR 7N70W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS AHEAD OF A
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. WAVE ALSO LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT TO THE ERN
SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR
THE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 68W-74W...AND ACROSS
PUERTO RICO/HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 65W-70W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 7N22W 11N35W 8N46W 8N59W
11N66W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING
OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 12W-16W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN
32W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N
BETWEEN 49W-51W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 57W-62W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO TODAY DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA SUPPORTING A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 86W-90W...AND
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 21N-24N
BETWEEN 82W-88W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO TO THE N FROM 25N-31N
BETWEEN 85W-93W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER LOUISIANA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A 1011 MB LOW NEAR
30N93W THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY MOVING ALONG THE NRN GULF. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WRN GULF CENTERED NEAR
24N95W...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE SE GULF EXTENDING
FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN...AND A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NRN FLORIDA TO CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN GULF IS
ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT SUPPORTING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER W OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF AND INTO THE WRN GULF AS THE TROPICAL WAVE AND
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT MOVES SLOWLY NW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERATING A LARGE
CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
18N-22N BETWEEN 86W-90W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WRN CUBA FROM 14N-23N
BETWEEN 80W-85W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER ERN JAMAICA. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W FROM
10N-12N ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING ACROSS
ERN HISPANIOLA TO NW VENEZUELA IS IMPACTING HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM
16N-21N BETWEEN 65W-70W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS
BOTH THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND ERN CARIBBEAN WITH A NARROW UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SANDWICHED BETWEEN THEM ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR.
THIS DRY AIR IS KEEPING MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN UNDER
FAIR CONDITIONS. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AS IT MOVES WWD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NRN BOUNDARY OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 37N64W
ALONG 28N68W ACROSS NRN FLORIDA TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI NEAR
33N89W. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT BASED
ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA EXTENDS ALONG 32N58W 28N64W 25N73W
27N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH...BROKEN OFF FROM THE
TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN...EXTENDS FROM 25N64W TO
22N66W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-25N
BETWEEN 60W-67W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE N AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N57W. FARTHER
E...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB AZORES
HIGH NEAR 40N34W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR. HOWEVER...A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N43W TO 22N46W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS BETWEEN 35W-55W CENTERED NEAR 22N46W...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE E CENTERED NEAR 20N28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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