[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061159
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF NEAR 26N87W JUST INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 19N88W TO INLAND OVER W
HONDURAS TO NEAR 14N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N84W TO
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN TO NEAR 19N89W WHILE A MUCH LARGER AREA
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE SE GULF S
OF 27N BETWEEN 83W-89W AND W CARIBBEAN W OF 81 TO OVER CUBA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 20N30W TO 8N32W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. WAVE
IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W S OF 12N MOVING W AT NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE IS AT LOW AMPLITUDE AND THUS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 50W-58W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N65W OVER PUERTO RICO TO N
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N68W MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 15N-20N
INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N12W 8N20W 11N34W 10N50W 8N60W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-12N
BETWEEN 34W-44W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE 4N-9N BETWEEN 10W-22W INCLUDING THE COAST OF W
AFRICA WITH SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 7N TO
S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 27W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA
EXTENDING OVER THE SE GULF S OF 26N E OF 92W AND CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THE ONGOING ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS
A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE SE US OVER THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA
BORDER TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE S OF THIS
LINE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N
GULF COAST DOTTING THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 93W. THE 1008 MB
LOW HAS MOVED INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AT 0900 UTC. AN ELONGATED
UPPER LOW IS OVER THE W GULF EXTENDING FROM THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS
BORDER TO VERA CRUZ MEXICO AND DOMINATED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR THUS LEAVING THE MOST OF THE W GULF UNDER
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS THIS
MORNING AND IS IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE UPPER HIGH
COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W ANCHORED JUST OFF THE YUCATAN
NEAR 20N87W AND IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOVING S OF HAITI WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 17N72W TO 18N76W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 60
NM OF LINE FROM 11N77W TO 12N81W. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER CLEAR THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 55W-70W WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NW
ALONG 28N70W TO OVER THE SE US NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER
SUPPORTING. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE NE OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS
EXTENDING FROM 29N74W TO 25N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 25N71W ALONG
2863W TO BEYOND 32N57W...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE SW
ATLC TO 26N W OF 70W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY DISCUSSED ABOVE. A
SURFACE TROUGH...PREVIOUSLY THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE...
EXTENDING FROM 24N61W TO 21N64W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 60W-66W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS NEAR 12N57W EXTENDING TO 26N BETWEEN
55W-66W INCLUDING THE E CARIBBEAN. A BROAD CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS
OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR 21N47W COVERING
THE AREA N OF 12N BETWEEN 35W-55W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW THAT REMAINS OFF THE COAST OF
MOROCCO EXTENDING SSW ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 23N20W. A
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC E OF
55W ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1031 MB HIGHS N OF THE AZORES AND A
WEAKNESS ALONG A BENIGN SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG
41W/42W FROM 23N-32N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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