[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF NEAR 26N87W ALONG THE E
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS
TO INLAND OVER W HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 82W-91W IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE WHILE A MUCH LARGER AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE SE GULF S OF 26N
BETWEEN 82W-87W AND W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W TO OVER CUBA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO  DISCERNIBLE SURFACE LOW A
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 19W. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NW AT 9 TO 13 KT. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 20N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED
ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 13N MOVING W AT NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE IS AT LOW AMPLITUDE AND THUS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 44W-56W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N63W THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO
N VENEZUELA NEAR 10N68W MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT. THE NORTH PORTION
OF THE WAVE HAS SLOWED AND IS NOW ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 24N58W TO 21N61W. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
175/200 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 14N AND FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN
59W-65W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N14W 10N23W 12N31W 8N44W 8N56W
10N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 10N-12N. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 4N-8N BETWEEN
10W-19W...FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 36W-42W...AND FROM 5N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA
EXTENDING OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 92W AND CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THE ONGOING ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS
A SHEAR AXIS OVER THE SE US OVER THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER TO
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THIS SAME
BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS S OF THIS LINE  WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE NE GULF N OF 26N
E OF 89W. A 1008 MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
29N91W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
60/75 NM NE OF THE LOW. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS OVER THE W
GULF EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO VERA CRUZ MEXICO AND
DOMINATED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR THUS LEAVING
THE MOST OF THE W GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS
TONIGHT AND IS IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE UPPER HIGH
THAT COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W IS LOCATED NEAR 20N86W AND
IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM SW HAITI TO ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA TO NEAR 21N79W. THE
ACTIVITY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LEAVING THE AREA FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN
70W-80W RATHER CLEAR TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 55W-70W WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING NW
ALONG 28N70W TO OVER THE SE US NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N58W SW
TO 28N69W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE NE OF THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 29N72W TO 24N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE FRONT AND
WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 24N70W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA
NEAR 27N80W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS OVER THE SW ATLC TO 26N W OF 70W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY
DISCUSSED ABOVE. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS NEAR
13N58W EXTENDING TO 24N BETWEEN 54W-68W INCLUDING THE E
CARIBBEAN. A BROAD CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC
ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR 23N47W COVERING THE AREA N OF 12N BETWEEN
32W-52W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN
UPPER LOW THAT REMAINS OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO EXTENDING SSW
ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 20N21W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC E OF 55W ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH N OF
THE AZORES AND A WEAKNESS ALONG A BENIGN SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS ALONG 40W FROM 23N-32N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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