[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF NEAR 25N84W INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN ALONG 85W TO CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 14N87W MOVING
SLOWLY W-NW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
12N-22N BETWEEN 83W-91W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE...WHILE A
MUCH LARGER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS COVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W...MOST OF CUBA...AND AN AREA FOCUSED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM 22N-28N
BETWEEN 76W-86W. WHILE A SURFACE CIRCULATION IS DIFFICULT TO
DEFINE...A BROAD MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED ON CANCUN RADAR
THIS EVENING NEAR 19N96W...OR ABOUT 80 NM SE OF COZUMEL. IT
REMAINS DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME AND CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND WESTERN CUBA
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 17N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS ARE
PERTURBED NORTHWARD TO 20N BETWEEN 22W-30W...INCLUDING THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 11N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE ALSO LIES WITHIN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED IN
THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-10N BETWEEN 44W-51W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N63W THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE TO
NORTHERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N66W MOVING W-NW AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS
DEPICTED VERY WELL IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY COVERING
A NARROW NORTHWARD EXTENDING AREA FROM THE COAST OF EASTERN
VENEZUELA ALONG 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 56W-66W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 59W-67W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 09N13W 10N26W 09N36W 08N48W 07N56W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 12N
BETWEEN 26W-46W. FARTHER WEST...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM 05N-10N ALONG 57W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
OCCURRING FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 54W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ALONG 30N TO
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SE CONUS. THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED OVER NE FLORIDA THIS EVENING. SOUTH OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...STRONG LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
OCCURRING ON SE FLOW ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND
MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF THAT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 23N TO NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG
31N E OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA THAT EXTENDS NORTHWARD OVER
THE SE GULF S OF 26N E OF 90W AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE
ONGOING CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA THIS EVENING. LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERNMOST EXTENT OF
THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
29N91W. ALSO...THE TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING GULF WATERS THROUGH
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 25N IS PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN
150 NM EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY REMAINING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NW CARIBBEAN
SEA WATERS. ELSEWHERE W OF 90W...THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N95W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 82W AND ACROSS
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA NORTH OF 10N. THIS ACTIVITY
IS LARGELY ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED NEAR 20N83W THAT STRETCHES ITS IMPACT EASTWARD TO 70W.
NORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED BETWEEN 70W-80W
PROVIDING FOR A RELATIVELY DRY AND CONVECTION-FREE AREA ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA THIS EVENING
DUE TO MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITIES. FARTHER
EAST... ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM THE ANEGADA
PASSAGE TO NORTHERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 13N E OF 67W AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...US/UK
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING. LIKEWISE...ALOFT
THIS TROPICAL WAVE FALLS BENEATH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED IN THE
TROPICAL NORTH ATLC NEAR 14N58W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF
75W...INCLUDING MOST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE ITCZ AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 08N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N64W AND EXTENDS ALONG 30N TO THE NE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 81W.
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED
ALONG 32N55W TO 26N65W THEN AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
ALONG 28N70W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST NEAR DAYTONA BEACH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM
NORTH AND WITHIN 200 NM SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WHILE OTHER
SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING W OF 75W IN
ASSOCIATION WITH LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL ENERGY FRACTURING OFF THE
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. FARTHER
SE...A TROPICAL WAVE IS IMPACTING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ENERGY FRACTURED OFF THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE IS ANALYZED
AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 23N59W TO 19N60W. THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS NE TOWARDS THE SURFACE
TROUGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS COVERING THE
TROPICAL NORTH ATLC FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 57W-67W IN ATLC WATERS.
FARTHER EAST...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A
1033 MB AZORES HIGH CENTERED NEAR 42N24W PROVIDING GENERALLY
FAIR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
26N-33N ALONG 38W SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 33W-52W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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