[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W TO HONDURAS/NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W
MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NW. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 82W-86W...AND FROM 18N-21N
BETWEEN 83W-87W. WHILE THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WRN CUBA OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CONFIRMED BY ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA.
WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM
INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP
CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 10N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE
LIES W OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 43W-48W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N60W ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
NRN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N64W MOVING WNW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
IN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. WAVE ALSO LIES UNDER A DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT TO
THE ERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION NEAR THE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 61W-65W...AND FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN
57W-62W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N13W 11N25W 9N34W 6N45W 5N53W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 31W-38W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 31W-40W.
AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 54W FORM 4N-8N
ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
6N-9N BETWEEN 54W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE ERN GULF
OF MEXICO TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NW
ATLC TO THE NE GULF SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS NRN FLORIDA NEAR ST. AUGUSTINE ACROSS THE PENINSULA TO
NEAR 30N88W MEETING A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO A 1011 MB LOW S
OF ATCHAFALAYA BAY LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE W ALONG 28N92W 28N94W. RADAR
IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF 86W ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AS WELL AS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 86W-92W. THE WRN
HALF OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS TEXAS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TO THE S CENTERED IN
THE SW GULF NEAR 22N96W SQUISHED BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
TEXAS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN GULF AS
A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN MOVES NW INTO THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS
TROPICAL WAVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN
82W-86W...AND FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 83W-87W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 76W-80W...AND FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 82W-85W
IMPACTING PANAMA/COSTA RICA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE E PACIFIC ITCZ TO THE S OF
PANAMA...AS WELL AS DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT COVERS THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR KEEPING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FAIR. FARTHER
E...A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N-17N
BETWEEN 61W-65W...AND FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 57W-62W. EXPECT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ERN CARIBBEAN AS
THIS WAVE TRACKS WNW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NRN BOUNDARY OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 39N61W
ALONG 30N70W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
30N86W. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING
THE AREA NEAR 31N56W ALONG 26N65W 29N77W 29N81W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E
OF 60W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 66W-76W. SLIGHTLY STRONGER ACTIVITY IS ALSO ACROSS THE
NW BAHAMAS AND APPROACHING SE FLORIDA FROM 22N-27N W OF 78W. S
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES
EXTENDING FROM THE W CARIBBEAN. E OF THE RIDGE...A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR
KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR. HOWEVER...DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE
UPPER TROUGH AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE E CENTERED E
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 14N57W IS STRENGTHENING CONVECTION
NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 57W-62W.
FARTHER E...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1032
MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 42N26W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR. HOWEVER...A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 37W FROM 26N-31N SUPPORTED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 39W. ELSEWHERE ALOFT...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE E ALONG 24W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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