[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051202
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AT 0900 UTC...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
ALONG 83W/84W FROM CUBA W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO W PANAMA
MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 78W-86W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA W OF 76W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. WHILE THE
WAVE HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS STILL
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR SOME POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND WRN
CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N/19W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 9N43W TO 2N45W MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS
NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 42W-48W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 21N58W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR
MARTINIQUE TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA TO 10N63W MOVING NW
10-15 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION AND THE TILT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE
FROM 20N56W TO 22N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 62W-65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 200 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS
INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N15W 6N27W 4N38W 8N54W 7N59W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 54W S OF 10N TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION S OF 9N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN
52W-56W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 4N TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 31W-40W AND FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 30W-40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 22W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MEXICO N ACROSS
TEXAS TO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES COVERING THE NW GULF W OF
A LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA TO MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN. AN UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE E HALF OF THE US INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE NE GULF
N OF 26N E OF 87W. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND INDUCING A NARROW INVERTED UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR VERA CRUZ MEXICO TO NEAR 26N91W. AT
0900 UTC...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW REMAINS IN THE GULF NEAR 29N90W
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW ALONG THE S COAST OF
LOUISIANA TO THE COAST OF ALABAMA THEN SE ALONG 30N86W WITH
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE N FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM
THE W ATLC N OF CEDAR KEY OVER APALACHICOLA BAY TO THE WARM
FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO JUST
INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE E OF 86W TO OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 89W-91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 25N E OF 91W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS E OF
81W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF LEAVING THE MOST OF W GULF UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W
CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS
ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N82W DOMINATING THE AREA W OF
70W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC
COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES WHILE
THE ACTIVITY IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS LEAVES THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR...THUS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE N PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA TO NEAR 28N W OF 55W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N57W SW ALONG 26N66W 29N77W THEN
ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 60W AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT W OF 68W TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE
SW ATLC TO 26N W OF 70W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N ACROSS CUBA W OF 77W TO THE COAST OF S
FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS NEAR 15N56W EXTENDING TO 23N BETWEEN
45W-63W INCLUDING THE E CARIBBEAN AND ENHANCING THE TILT OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. A WEAK UPPER LOW
IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 24N49W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
E ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO
ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 19N35W. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC E OF 55W ANCHORED
BY A 1031 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES AND A WEAKNESS ALONG A BENIGN
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 36W FROM 23N-30N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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